Also, given how obscenely expensive a war would be, couldn't China save money by just hiring the entirety of TSMC's and ASML's technical staff at 10x the market rate for ten years?
Paying a premium to headhunt technical experts is a tried-and-true method of catching up to a front-runner. In fact, both Taiwan and South Korea did this, poaching underpaid Japanese talent.
Yes. ASML is integrated into the dollar-based global financial system, so it will have to respect American financial sanctions. This is the same way that such sanctions against Iran and North Korea work.
An interesting aspect though: I think the technological superiority of ASML is a big asset in these discussions. e.g. If the US would follow up on a threat of sanctions against ASML (e.g. banning US companies from working with ASML) it would hit the US semiconductor industry quite hard (particularly Intel), while non-US players (e.g. TSMC) could continue producing with euv.
In effect, they would have to go much further to keep some similarity of a level playing field: e.g banning all products containing chips produced on ASML machines. That would hit a lot more companies, many of them US based too. Creating even more reasons for the US Gov to not to take such drastic steps.
Therefore I expect that it is much more likely they'll use pressure on the EU / NL government systems to force the behaviour they want, compared to economic sanctions vs ASML.
> ASML is integrated into the dollar-based global financial system, so it will have to respect American financial sanctions
I'm no expert, but if a company wants to pay ASML in Euros, I'm pretty sure they can accept euros. The dollar is convenient, not a requirement.
The implication is not about accepting payment. The western banking system can and has blackballed firms that took money from people the US didn't like.
Companies rarely exchange money directly, though. They usually have a bank do it on their behalf, and those banks are subject to the laws of the countries they operate in.
You also have to avoid SWIFT, since the US controls that too.
The Europeans just set this up to avoid these issues with Iran:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_in_Support_of_Trade...
It took nearly a year and a half between the founding and the first payment.
On one hand, they brag about how a company in China took apart an ASML machine, and replicated every component, but it didn't work.
But I'm sure ASML knows that they'll try again. They have at least a limited interest in keeping their technology from being stolen.
That's assuming those folks would want to move to China and work there. If strategic tensions are increasing to the point where war is feared and China uses this as an alternative, who would want to move there and risk becoming a hostage?
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/Taiwan-loses-3-0...
Netherlands / ASML is subject to Wassenaar Arrangement which US can ultimately trigger to ban dual use tech sales.
Probably doesn't make much of a difference though.