Well you need to be a bit stupid to want to start a business. You would be considered stupid if someone told you you have a 5% chance at every kissing this girl, yet you decide to spend the next 3 years of your life pursuing her and her only. This is exactly what we do.
You would be considered stupid if someone told you you have a 5% chance at every kissing this girl, yet you decide to spend the next 3 years of your life pursuing her and her only.
If that girl is worth more than 20x as much to you as any other girl, a 5% chance is worth it.
Most people have some risk aversion. For example, few people would trade $10 million for a 10% chance at $100 million.
Interesting. I am assuming you would. Can you briefly explain your reasoning?
Unless you really, really need 100 million, no reasoning will make that a good bet. The expected value is 10 million, and since that's what you're putting at stake, you have nothing to gain. Whereas the utility value of a guaranteed 10 million, assuming you're not very rich already, is huge. It's more than an average lifetime of hard work.
True, but it's probably not a good idea to tell your girlfriend that.
If determination could increase your chance, then you may be better going for $100 million. Otherwise take $10m.
I think like you, but I know it is still irrational.
That's true assuming a linear or convex utility function. Most people have concave risk functions, so they would rather spend their time with the girl who's 5x better than the average girl, but have a 50% shot with.
Progress in life often comes through a healthy dose of foolishness.