You have no cause to sound as confident as you are. You're completely wrong in the first paragraph in a way that shows you don't understand the first thing that you are talking about. For example, you say " For instance, covid19 was discovered around October at the start of the seasonal flu season in the northern hemisphere and it was a coronavirus, which makes it 95% likely to be strongly seasonal, highly infectious, and mild" First, it was discovered in late December, probably jumping to humans in November. Second, there are four "mild" coronaviruses, that have been circulating for a long time, but that's neglecting to mention that there is a strong bright line between the "seasonal" circulating coronaviruses and the new coronaviruses - the name that was given to nCoV-19 gives a hint to what you should be calibrating as your reference (SARS-CoV-2) - SARS and MERS, both of which have astronomical case fatality rates (10% and 40%). SARS was contained by a massive public health effort of quarantine and lockdown, MERS the same except it seems to be less transmittable.