Given the infection curve in the US, scenario 2 defies the laws of nature, so I hope universities don’t try it. I don’t doubt that some will, but under no circumstances should it be considered a reasonable option.
It is the same in Germany currently, although the spread is well under control, most education institutions are still highly skeptical of reopening for the semester after Summer.
From my understanding most Universities are currently planning on 2, but with going online after Thanksgiving.
Sure, but they'll either be forced to change course by states, insurance-related concerns, or when people start dying on their campuses. The reality of the pandemic has little to do with their performances of safety or viability.