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Comment by kube-system | Hacker News Reader

The person is not suggesting it's a statistical flaw -- but that it's a self-selection bias.

Hypothesis: The people who opt to spend more for a 4wd version are people who know they will use it because they operate the vehicle in inclement conditions, and/or they are uncomfortable with their ability to operate a 2wd vehicle in those conditions and/or they do not have the option to stay home when the weather is bad.

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Living in Vermont for five years taught me that while a 4wd is a better choice for bad conditions, it's because they are less likely to get stuck with spinning wheels, but they don't stop any faster than a 2wd.

I would see way more SUVs in ditches than sedans. People tend to overestimate what their 4wd is going to do for them and aren't sufficiently cautious. The first snow/ice of the year was particularly bad.

Good point, can't crash a car if you can't get it to move.

> People tend to overestimate what their 4wd is going to do for them and aren't sufficiently cautious.

Or because when it snows the ones who can afford to do so take the "winter beater" 2002 Trailblazer instead of the car they usually drive.

It can go the other way too, they don't buy it to drive in inclement conditions, but once they have it they increase their driving in inclement conditions because "4x4s can go in any conditions".

4x4 drivers might do offroading: so the figures could be much lower than if those people had 4x2 (2wd) vehicles.

I think recreational 4x4 is niche enough that it is probably not significantly represented in the data (and those accidents are mostly single-vehicle and probably less likely to be reported)

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