A $500M call option on home gyms
napkinmath.substack.com
napkinmath.substack.com
Lay people who are not into being fit are the audience for all these ridiculous things that don't help them get or stay fit because what it takes to be strong and fit cannot be derived from apps. You have to know how to prioritize, fitness has to be in the top of that priority list, you have to have the skills to create and stick to a routine. You have to know how to manage your time, how to get enough sleep, how to eat, how to move your body - like how to hip hinge for example - what activity you enjoy, how to achieve goals. A fitness app isn't going to do any of these things for you.
These things are ridiculous. As a powerlifter I'm trying to imagine what intelligent doo-dad they'd try stick with us, and the most interesting things I've seen are the bar velocity tools, but unless you're strong enough to compete, I doubt you give a shit. I don't think barbell sports are a billion dollar investment market though for a gadget.
Fitness apps are very common among "people who are into fitness". In lifting, running, cycling, and other realms. Your No True Scotsman claim doesn't mesh with reality.
I lift three times a week, and have for years. I use and very much enjoy Fitbod. It tracks my activities in a way that would be a giant pain otherwise...why would I use a notebook and a spreadsheet when there are tools perfectly suited?
It sounds like you’re mostly thinking of strength training, which is one of the areas of fitness that is less well-served by fancy technology.
> Lay people who are not into being fit are the audience for all these ridiculous things that don't help them get or stay fit because what it takes to be strong and fit cannot be derived from apps.
[citation needed]
The argument basically seems to boil down to "fat lazy slobs should just give up".
Everyone's "journey" (sorry, I hate the term, too) starts somewhere. This kind of thing is exactly what some people will need. I have no idea if $500M will turn out to be a good investment, nor what % of Mirror buyers will get into fitness long-term. But the reality is that some/many of them will, and it's pretty silly to imply that someone using a gadget to get into fitness cannot or will not learn to prioritize fitness, learn skills, how to manage their time, all these things you tout.
So I agree with you, this is a far larger market than people who think about correct movement and actual gains.
If Strava makes it more fun for some people, then that's absolutely fantastic. However, I see a lot of people (new cyclists in particular)that want to micromanage all of their exercise, and it seems like it causes them anxiety.
I lift weights, and as someone who is not bulking (nor have I for a few years), I don't keep track of my lifting. I just lift in the volume and weight that feels good to me. Exercise science is kind of a wasteland anyway, so detailed data on one's workouts isn't even particularly useful information.
This has never worked for me. The extra push is exhausting, and then I use that as an excuse to skip the next day, and eventually the habit breaks.
Don't overexert yourself, do only the amount that feels good and keep it easy so that you're not turned off when you need to do it again the next day.
Once you've built up a habit, you can slowly ramp it up, but trying to go too fast has always caused me to stop altogether. If you go slowly enough that you don't notice the additional exertion, you're much more likely to keep your habit.
Contrary to popular soundbytes, you actually can improve without pushing yourself too hard. It's weird going from barely being able to run half a mile to running five miles without getting seriously winded, but it does work, and you don't ever need to feel winded in the process. If you start to feel bad, stop. Don't beat yourself up if you didn't get as far as you did yesterday, just do it again tomorrow.
I was only ever able to do this slowly. Overexerting myself always failed.
As for fun... Eh. I've gotten to the point where I feel restless if I haven't gone running, so then I go run and shower, and then I feel great. But the restless itching feeling is the habit that makes me want to go, not fun in the moment. Maybe running is weird.
Find something you like! It can be any activity that requires some exertion! Canoeing! Trail hiking! Boxing! Street hockey! Soccer? Bouldering! There's so many different forms of sports and activities and there's going to be one both fun and challenging for you enough to make it part of your daily life. That's what you need.
That's not my argument at all. In fact I'm reducing the entry cost to achieving a fit lifestyle and explaining what's actually important.
You don't need any apps, you don't need to pay a monthly subscription for a digital service. Maybe you might have to pay a membership fee at a gym or a boxing club or some place you can go to do to the thing you want to do. The local canoe club, who knows.
I'm proposing these apps are like fad diets, people will pay for them, see they don't work, and move on to the next thing, perpetuating failure and bad outcomes. I predict this $500m investment will blow up as a failure, that was more the point I was trying to make.
People just need to fix their behavior. They need to find an activity they like, prioritize it, create a routine, and make it part of their life. People have been doing this since before apps existed, and it's all it takes, and apps can't do that. You have to do it for yourself.
For me, as a longtime occasional cyclist (get into it for a few years, stop, restart, etc), once upon a time (1 year) competitive college athlete, but mostly lazy slob.. it involved my wife buying the Peloton bike .... then 6 or 8 months later when I was regularly biking to work, but still gaining weight... started seeing a personal trainer.. he encouraged me to track what I eat, and I've now been using myfitnesspal for 3 years. You could point to any one of these things as being what did it for me; obviously the structure and advice from seeing a trainer was crucial, but #1 on that list for me was MFP, so yes, an app (and a free one at that!) The feedback loop of what I inputted there showing up on the scale the next week was addictive. It was the first time anything really "worked" for me. #2 on that list is the Peloton, in particular once I started doing Power Zone training, where I could join a team, stick to a schedule, and quantify performance gains that I can now see when I set personal records up local climbs on my road bike. I'm also in a running club and compete on the road and cross-country.
Again, everyone's path is different, and I absolutely could have done any of this on my own, but I'm 39 years old, and the reality is, I didn't until I started using an iPhone app. And the data and quantifiable results of my various forms of training are what keeps me going, and reinforces those habits.
> what it takes to be strong and fit cannot be derived from apps. You have to know how to prioritize, fitness has to be in the top of that priority list, you have to have the skills to create and stick to a routine. You have to know how to manage your time, how to get enough sleep, how to eat, how to move your body - like how to hip hinge for example - what activity you enjoy, how to achieve goals. A fitness app isn't going to do any of these things for you.
Powerlifting as a sport is full of gimmicks and fads, the post struck out to me as calling out these gimmicks and fads and to return to the basics and bare essentials with the lowest barrier of entry, which to me seems to be for a good reason as the fads often come across as gatekeeping the sport and raising the barrier to entry in general, which begs the question, is it gatekeeping to call out such gatekeeping behaviour? To put it another way, would it be gatekeeping to suggest that healthy weight people don't need to follow fad diets to remain at a healthy weight? Is it gatekeeping to call out often times harmful fad diets? Is it denigrating to the people following said diets? The implication seems to be that it's wrong to gatekeep even if the purpose is to caution against spending money on gimmicks or fads that might not be the best way to achieve a persons goals.
The quote says literally that you "have to" do all these things and they "cannot be derived from apps".
> This isn't entirely true of course as some apps have started incorporating programming and technique information as well as dietary information etc and can provide live coaching services at a premium, but this is starting to get beside the point.
It's not beside the point, it is the point. The quoted claim is wrong. Everything the quote claims you can't get out of an app, actually you can.
> the post struck out to me as calling out these gimmicks and fads and to return to the basics and bare essentials with the lowest barrier of entry, which to me seems to be for a good reason as the fads often come across as gatekeeping the sport and raising the barrier to entry in general
I don't see how offering an app to do x is gatekeeping, unless someone tries to suggest that that app is the only way to do x (which is not something I've seen happening). Whereas saying that you have to do x the traditional way and anything else is never going to work, is absolutely gatekeeping.
> To put it another way, would it be gatekeeping to suggest that healthy weight people don't need to follow fad diets to remain at a healthy weight? Is it gatekeeping to call out often times harmful fad diets?
If you claim that the only way to maintain a healthy weight is the way that you do it, that's gatekeeping. If a specific diet is harmful then by all means call it out, but if you start making blanket - and false - claims like diets can never help anyone, or all diets other than the one you like are fads, then that's gatekeeping.
> The implication seems to be that it's wrong to gatekeep even if the purpose is to caution against spending money on gimmicks or fads that might not be the best way to achieve a persons goals.
That wasn't the purpose that came through in that post.
People like the idea of doing something (in the case, becoming fit). They are not fit. This causes brain distress. Brain wants to do something about this dissonance, so brain says, "oh, I can buy a very expensive item that is a tool for becoming fit. Ahhhh, there is some relief to my dissonance." And then you buy the mirror and continue to not train, but your brain feels some sense of completion.
This factor has been studied. https://interruptions.net/literature/Wicklund-BASP81.pdf
This factor I have observed in my own behaviors first-hand.
> you have to have the skills to create and stick to a routine
Unless an app creates the routine for you.
> You have to know how to [...] move your body
Unless you have an app to show you how.
These apps also set goals and record progress for people who don't know what to aim for. Between that, the gamification, and competing with others, this can be enough of a motivation for folks that wouldn't otherwise be part of the "make it your top-priority" and spreadsheet-tracking crowd.
Otherwise I wholly agree with you (am also an [amateur] powerlifter) - the one thing these apps undeniably cheat their users of is owning their own fitness. They prey on the type of person who does not know how, or even doesn't want, to take ownership of their fitness and instead signing them up for a generic routine that might get some results, but ultimately the gratification that they are doing _something_ at least.
Though I am quite biased and a snob about them, I will happily admit.
Many people cannot stick to a solo workout routine. These people benefit a lot from classes. Fitness classes provide many positive things:
- relationships with instructors & other students
- peer pressure to show up and work hard
- regular schedules
- prevention of injury from bad technique
- variety of music and routine which reduces boredom
- incentive to work hard to maximize benefit from financial expenditure
Together, these things improve the quality of life for participants. Fitness classes benefit society. Someday, human society will progress to the point where personal fitness is an expected part of personal hygiene, like brushing teeth and showering. At that point, fitness classes will be universally available, affordable, diverse, and extremely engaging.
Now, I’ve got a home gym, and I bought a subscription to Les Mills. It’s been great and I look forward to getting sweaty for an hour. It’s not perfect and I’m certainly not getting into perfect physique but I’m definitely getting great cardio, becoming more flexible, and gaining strength. Don’t think I am being taken advantage of or being denied “ownership of my fitness” when in fact it’s the absolute opposite.
Nothing, if that's what you want. What I'm referring to is this idea that subscribing to one of these services and getting whatever results you get from it is "it". I would be much better impressed by any service that educates the subscriber about even the basics of nutrition and physiology instead of just pushing their LCD programs like they are the silver bullet.
FWIW I don't look down on Peloton, I think it's actually a great service. Lots of people working out in a class-like virtual environment is great as I am confident a lot of those who partake wouldn't go to the gym to do the same otherwise, for whatever reason(s).
I'm a marathoner (running 40-50 miles most weeks) and have a Strava subscription. I also have an Aaptiv subscription which I enjoy for core workouts and other ways to cross-train. My Garmin triathlon watch records data into the Garmin app where I also engage in challenges with friends and activity data is forwarded to Strava (and Aaptiv via Garmin -> Apple Health).
The gamification and content in both apps cause me to train more and harder. Strava in particular makes running social for me when I can't run with others.
I wouldn't buy Mirror personally, but I have very seriously been contemplating Peloton.
But, I must admit that peloton is pretty motivational. We got a cycle right before the pandemic, mostly because we have a newborn and it's hard to find time to make it to the gym.
I was surprised, but I think I work out harder with it than when I am just out for a jog myself. Sure, when I really feel like pushing myself on a run, I can work out just as hard. But there are also lots of times when I'm just forcing myself to go out and exercise and I don't put everything I have into it. With the peloton cycle, I feel like I get into the workout much quicker and rarely just go through the motions.
People on normal bikes can buy a 'smart trainer' ($400-1200) and already have many options of connected apps (https://www.dcrainmaker.com/2020/03/cycling-indoor-trainer-a...), the most popular of which is Zwift.
I use Zwift and Trainerroad. However, I don't think these actually compete with Peloton. Peloton is like going to a gym class. You just follow allong, and show up when you want to and go mostly all out. It's a nice workout, but often not aligned with long term goals. But TR for instance one gets a tailored plan based on one's race goals that season.
Tracking food, sleep, and my weight has been really helpful. It lets me know what I need to adjust to meet my goals.
Tracking my walking/running data is pretty useful as a motivator to improve.
Its easier and more convenient to track all of these things either automatically using sensors or manually on my phone in an app than it is to use a spreadsheet.
I don't really like using apps to track my strength training though.
What do you make of Strava? Tons of elite runners and cyclists use it. I use it, Garmin Connect, Elevate, and various others to track my fitness. I would say that the vast majority of people who are "into fitness" use apps to track their fitness.
That said, I think the market of weight lifters with good technique who use barbells is much smaller than the market of casual weight lifters/gym goers.
Doesn't align with my experiences, at all. Every single runner and cyclist I know (including myself) uses apps to track their activities. Notebooks are simply not as convenient as automatic GPS tracking. I understand why notebooks are sufficient for lifting, which has long rest periods to record relatively simple measurements. But it's a different story for lots of other sports.
Strava alone has something like 50 million users, and for good reason - it's an incredibly effective training tool.
For me, Strava is more about tracking my individual runs and keeping up to date with what friends are doing. Monitoring any actual training, for me at least, is easier with paper and a spreadsheet.
There's also a number of things you can do with an old Android smartphone and some common apps that create GPX format track files, if you want to import your ride paths into Google Earth pro on a desktop PC, without uploading to a cloud based service.
You don't need some $400 bike computer and a cloud based service to achieve a high level of road cycling fitness. Have a good digital scale at home. Track your cumulative riding distances and average speeds. Eat healthy, etc.
Having an offline log and metrics to compare your own performance against is extremely useful. Data and information can be a powerful motivator to compete against yourself to improve your average speeds, climbing times and so forth. Where I disagree philosophically is whether that data needs to become a subscription you pay forever for, or if your data needs to ever go out to a third party.
And I really disagree. Maybe one doesn't need a good cycle computer, but the stats and motivation that brings is invaluable. Seeing the actual data instead of just an average/total at the end is very useful.
I used to track my hiking miles back in the day. All it did was justify poor eating habits or give me a false sense of pride.
This is useful for those who don't find working out in itself to be a rewarding activity and may have a hard time sticking with it otherwise.
As a powerlifter, I completely agree with the OP. When I first got into resistance training, as a techie, my inclination was to try all the apps and gadgets. 3 years later and I realised that the old timers had it right, the best tool for resistance training is a pencil and a notebook, maybe backed up by a spreadsheet to track long-term progress.
1. As a consumer, I would like to have such an editor / viewer for my phone, is there something alike for traindown?
2. Functionality-wise, wouldn't a nice editor/viewer app necessarily be a subset of spreadsheet-like app and isn't traindown then competing against such a more general app? (Not that I know a single FOSS spreadsheet app, so I'm speaking hypothetically)
I think the issue here is that you never really stuck to a single app and used it long term. I was in the same boat, I pretty much tried all the apps, bought an Apple Watch, but nothing really satisfied my needs. In the end, I just stuck to one app (Strong), and kept using it. It's not perfect, and there are things that I'm missing, but in the end, it always me to track all my lifts and shows me the progression. It's indeed something that I could quite easily do with a notebook (although I won't have the fancy graphs), but I already have my phone with me to listen to music, so might as well use it to track.
Along with rough tracking of calories -- I ignore things like green veggies and coffee -- and weight and I'm golden.
I'm just interested in being fit (which I achieve with just shoes, and going for a run every ~3 days), not in achieving peak fitness or optimal training strategies.
I believe others benefit from tracking, which is fine too.
Show me a runner without a Garmin (or similar)
These Apps and Services are for
1) People who want 'to feel good' i.e. they did something for their fitness
2) People who want to transition from knowing nothing about fitness, to knowing something
3) People who want to develop a habit of fitness. Keeping tracking of things is critical
What gets Measured Gets Managed (peter drucker, google it)
4) people who are absolutely clueless and want to know where to start
a good example is the Water app. IT was super simple. 10 glasses of water. As you drink a glass you tap it and you can keep track
To someone who is very fit, it makes zero sense. They already have a routine and a habit
On the other hand, for the 98% of the population who don't have a very healthy and very disciplined routine, that is an app that can be super valuable
*
Please keep in mind that IN ANY ACTIVITY
the vast majority of people have ZERO interest in being Arnold Schwarzenegger of Fitness or Warren Buffet of investing
they just want to go from unconscious incompetence to conscious incompetence to even a tiny bit of competence
EVEN if it is just a feeling
I use a Garmin watch for track my running/biking, and it does play a role in inspiring me to lift my ass up. The metrics are what I find to be fun, and they even help me compete with myself to do better every single time. I agree that Mirror is an overpriced commodity that 90% of us don't need, but there are always people going after the 'fancy' stuff.
For many people screwing about with gear and new toys is a big part of having a hobby. This includes both people that are good at their hobbies and those that aren’t.
Also, several of my friends use Strava or similar apps to great effect wrt their biking and running.
It's nearly always a mistake to assume your personal experiences or perspective are universal.
Got a link? There are a bunch on the App Store with that in the title.
The app per se is a little rough around the edges, but imho that's moot; I've followed its guidance for stretching and reps and rest days, and it was gratifying (and motivating) to track my progress to 100 consecutive pushups and beyond. Enjoy! :)
Always in fitness you have a group of customers who are not into fitness and making an aspirational purchase. However, there is also a group (probably larger than the hardcore weightlifter types) of fitness-oriented people who aren’t trying to lift heavy weights and they use apps, workout classes, and HIIT training with light weights.
Peleton/Mirror suit this group well. Both of my parents - who are older but fit - do almost 100% of their workouts on the Peleton now. My roommate, a former D1 athlete runs and does fitness classes via app. In both cases they were doing this before COVID, and quarantine is obviously causing many others to embrace this as well.
This is definitely more activity than I was doing before the watch. According to the Health app on my iPhone, my average daily walking distance is 2-3x post-watch than pre-watch.
Turns out I'm as susceptible to psychologically manipulative gamification as any other random person.
> As a powerlifter
This is what's called "projecting". Other people who are "into fitness" are not into it the same way you are.
It's amusing to see this wave of products; does anybody remember Wii Fit, the balance board, Playstation Move, etc? There's long been a market for gizmos and gadgets that are intended to make physical activity more "fun" via gamification. There's always going to be a market for the latest fitness fad, and the trick for any company wanting to make a buck here is to keep evolving their "gimmick" to recapture imagination every so often (rather than selling a single trick which people will get tired of eventually).
I think these toys may actually help people become more fit, FWIW. Some people only need a little nudge to get moving, and a gizmo might just do the trick. Anecdotally, I feel like the most successful gizmos in this class are the bicycling video games, which may have to do with the fact that the core elements of the sport are easier to simulate well than most other activities.
The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously. Any sound that Winston made, above the level of a very low whisper, would be picked up by it; moreover, so long as he remained within the field of vision which the metal plaque commanded, he could be seen as well as heard. There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment.
That means I think they're not really comparable.
You can make anything sound dystopian if it were compulsory. When it's a tool people choose to use it can be empowering and help people achieve the goals they had before they chose the product.
I'm not sure this is really an intelligent or meaningful criticism. I think it's just snark - something said for the sake of it that sounds witty but doesn't really stand up if you think about it.
These corporations are very powerful, and we're inviting their surveilance tools into our homes without IMO a great guarantee of what's done with our data. They also tend to have a pretty cushy relationship with governments. And even where they don't, governments are able and usually willing to compromise these devices for their own purposes. That exists on a specrum from law enforcement asking for data, to the NSA and similar using security vulernabilities they buy or develop.
This device in particular is probably not a big deal for the above, but it's one more for the pile.
To the unfamiliar, it's from 1984, by George Orwell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four)
Plagiarism?
Otherwise it's implied that those words came from you.
Truly a Kaufmanian contribution.
For all things turn to barrenness
In the dim glass the demons hold,
The glass of outer weariness,
Made when God slept in times of old.I kid…I don't kid. The mute treadmill. The silent exercise bike. All that unused exercise equipment, sitting in basements, forlorn. Everybody buys this stuff, assuming they are going to really get into it hard. And they won't. Most likely. Will a few people? Sure. Will the majority? Nah.
I straight up don't kid: going to the gym is (was) somewhat akin to going to church for me. (Still not open in Toronto yet.) You can worship or work out at home, but there's something I just can't quantify or articulate about having a space to go to that is NOT your home where you push yourself physically, and are not distracted by trying to find something on Netflix, or the dog getting in the way of kettlebell swings.
So I'm skeptical. If I were a shorting man, I'd short these companies, because eventually these gadgets will go the way of all those Bowflex past: extremely expensive dust magnets.
(Or perhaps I'm a freak; I have worked remotely for 5 years, and am highly highly productive. Perhaps this is all a quirk of my psychology.)
(I actually suspect the boutique fitness stuff may come out of this better than big ol' boxes full of treadmills like Planet Fitness. It's easier to social distance and sanitized with defined class times and appointment. One of the big chain gyms here is doing just that; you set a time to go for the gym, and then you get out so they can sanitize the equipment. Which is nice, but labor-intensive. I can't imagine $15/month warehouses full of weights maintaining that. https://www.goodlifefitness.com/goodlife-standard)
I do think it's important to have a decent space in your house to work out, which would certainly be an impediment to some. But in the past that space has been our living room (hardwood floors, fortunately) with the coffee table pushed up against the wall.
Having a video workout program to follow can also be very helpful for motivation and continuity. What I can't understand is what value this Mirror adds. I regularly do BeachBody workout programs, which I watch on our TV. Used to be by buying their DVD sets; now it's through their streaming app. But that's cheaper than the mirror program, with more content, and doesn't require buying a $1500 mirror up front. Everyone already has a TV, and I don't believe the portrait orientation is even really a benefit.
So yeah, I'm bullish on home workouts, but bearish on Mirror.
Yeah, if my psychology was set up for it, I'd be doing those hill sprints in the park near me in addition to perfunctory pushups. But in either case: none of it involves spending $1500 on some magic mirror.
For me, going to the gym (technically Bar Method) was always done with an instructor, so that I could get their feedback on proper form and adjustments to my routine.
They are dated, but that's part of the charm, and they are actually very, very good workouts.
But I agree on something else: I would also short these companies, for other reasons. I think there's no moat large enough to defend them in the future.
Also, you say you're "highly highly productive". Hey man, please share more about it. I believe you, and I want to know more!
And as for productivity, I'll just link to this, and see if anyone has snarky comments on how rapidly this project has moved or not: https://www.wolframalpha.com
There is a HUGE market for this stuff, even gym subscriptions, that never, ever get used. I was friends with a Crossfit licensee and he said only 50% of people that paid actually showed up every week, and only ~85% showed up every month. The other 15%? They just kept reauthorizing charges, showing up every now and then when he called them, and then forgot again.
It's a cash cow. The only downside to equipment is losing revenue to resale on Craigslist or Nextdoor.
Basically how all gyms work, human laziness and human financial incompetence, though theres also a sprinkle of shady stall tactics by gyms for cancellation.
TLDW: create areas with boundaries inside your home and make sure you follow these boundaries.
She rides it nearly every day, and has a group of people she rides with including IRL friends and people she met online. The difference of exercise equipment today vs. yesterday is the group and community aspect. I was skeptical, but I have added Peloton rides to my normal weight workouts. The instructors are good, and the connected aspect of the metrics (I’m numbers driven) pulls me along for more and harder workouts.
With the obvious realization that I wasn't getting younger, I decided to get a Peloton last year, and immediately got hooked. I started riding 3-4 times/week, but since the lockdown started I created the habit of riding every single day; I'm now on my 16-week streak. But the surprising part is that I'm actually enjoying it.
So I'm the opposite spectrum - I'm long on these companies, and strong believe they'll continue to do well post-Covid. The model is brilliant: fixed cost, variable income, and control of the entire ecosystem -- hw + sw + content + ownership of the customer experience. Unless they screw up on execution, they have a very profitable path ahead.
Just sad that Mirror was acquired by Lululemon, instead of Peloton; it would be a killer combination in terms of content + hardware. But it wouldn't surprise me if they come up with something similar in the future.
I'm glad you found enjoyment in health, but one doesn't need the expensive hardware to get there
My meta point is that from a business perspective, I'm very optimistic with the future of at-home exercise - Peloton, Mirror, p.volve, be.come, etc.
I said okay but first we're getting a $300 version from Amazon. If you use it every day for 2 months and it isn't sufficient, we can get a Peloton.
We now have a $300 clothes rack. Luckily it wasn't $2000.
If you're the kind of person who doesn't work out regularly, a gadget won't make you work out regularly. It will at first. When the novelty wears off, it won't. Just like the impact every TODO app and productivity system has on me.
You must first become the kind of person who works out. Then buy the gadgets.
Sometimes a big spend CAN drive bigger use. I pulled the trigger on a(n expensive to me) carbon fiber road bike about 12 years ago; ultimately I justified it to myself that I'd feel guilty if I spent so much and DIDN'T ride it. So far, that seems to be working! and I don't have the itch to replace it, either.
We also have a Peloton bike and Tread, FWIW. And I, too, struggle mightily with productivity systems, and the Peloton classes don't solve entirely for motivation.. it can help make the difference at the margins, though.
And it still became a clothes rack within a few months.
So far the only thing she's tried that consistently worked for her was a personal trainer. Something about being accountable to an actual in-person human really did the trick for her.
Unfortunately quarantine put an end to that. It also gets real expensive real fast.
For a few years I also went to a personal trainer a couple times a week, which is another planet of expense compared to a $2k bike and $40/mo. But, overall, I find the connected type fitness classes (and in this I include Zwift though I've never owned a setup myself) to be far BETTER than going to a gym which just has massive, massive barriers to entry for most people.
I took his advice and got what I needed for pennies on the dollar by looking in the local classifieds.
And look, it's clearly not for most HN'ers who would prefer to exercise in nature, with their own weights, whatever.
But there's a huge segment of people who find exercise really difficult if it's not a group class with a social aspect, if it's not an external schedule they commit to, who don't have the time to commute to a gym, and who can afford Mirror (and afford Lululemon).
For these people it's a truly amazing product. And this acquisition is absolutely fascinating -- basically the same customer base, Mirrors get put in every Lululemon store, and Lululemon has a screen they control in what will ultimately be millions of homes.
As long as they don't screw this up, this could be huge -- vertically-integrated affluent fitness for the twenty-first century.
What works for me regarding on-going daily exercise is rowing while listening to a podcast about something really deep (JRE, The Portal, etc.). It takes me exactly 60 seconds to get my shoes on, queue up a podcast and start into the rowing session. Anything longer than this would probably demotivate me to the point of not exercising regularly.
I strongly suspect the reason a lot of this fancy exercise gear is never used consistently is because there is always some UX annoyance that gets in your way - forgot safety key somewhere, need to update your treadmill software, have to review user manual, etc. In this attention deficit society, anything beyond 60 seconds might as well be tomorrow. You have to eliminate barriers to fitness, not create new ones.
A Concept 2 Model D rower can operate without electricity or internet. Its user interface is completely optional (assuming you already have the damper set appropriately). The mode of exercise is intuitive and easy to learn. These facts make it one of the most valuable pieces of exercise equipment that one can own. All you need is a can of 3-in-1 oil and you can make it last for an eternity. The only things you have to think about are your form and how much you feel like pushing your metabolic pathways. Everything else is optional. This is the best way to monotonically improve ones fitness. Consistency and ease of use. Distracting screens and wildly variable exercise regimes built upon social networking and gamification are moving entirely in the wrong direction.
Also barbells can be the ultimate silent form of exercise if you are skilled in their usage. I can do most lifts more quietly than when I am rowing. Dropping the barbell, or explosive lower body movements are usually the only 2 things that should ever make loud noises, and one of those should never happen if you are doing things properly.
I also don't think it is unreasonable to make a little bit of noise during waking hours, especially if it's only for ~30 minutes at a time and not of an impulsive nature (i.e. dropping things on the floor). A C2 would probably be mistaken for a washing machine when listening through a wall.
EDITED TO ADD:
Also: you're approaching this like a set of arbitrary components you plug together: An exercise machine and the entertainment. Maybe for some people it's easier when they're together and you don't get one without the other?
I mean, I can listen to a podcast without getting on a rower (or exercise bike, etc), but if you can't "ride" the scenic routes without your Peloton, I can see that being a motivator for some people.
I get the impression a lot of the criticism levied here comes from people who have never even tried these experiences.
C2's production is largely still in the USA, with quality paramount. The PM computer, I think, is done overseas. Profits are slim. How have they not ended up like Cannondale Bicycles? (production shipped to China in late 90s, with quality inevitably suffering)
I used to do a lot of YouTube fitness videos but the Peloton classes are better. Full Netflix quality HD, no preroll commercials, constant stream of new workouts that I don’t have to search around for, etc.
I assume Mirror offers something similar. If $40/month sounds expensive keep in mind many of us compare fitness expenses to the $300/month gym memberships we were paying for prior to Covid.
Sometimes you can justify the prices to people who would pay $30 per spin class and go to 10+ spin classes a month. They also tend to be located down town right next to big work hubs so they're easy to get to. Finally, they usually don't participate in the shady budget-gym "you can never cancel" dark patterns.
I'm in NYC and could never justify an Equinox membership, but $75-$125/mo is pretty standard if you want to join a gym with classes and not be tied to a single location.
I had a New York Sports Club membership with access to all NYC locations and classes for ~$75/mo after a discount offered by my company. Being able to go meet a friend for a class at their location or be able to pick a gym near home or work was convenient.
I’m referring to LifeTime but Equinox and others target this price point. It’s very successful in my high cost of living area, and they’ve been expanding quickly. I hope they survive Covid though I’ll admittedly have my membership on hold until a vaccine arrives.
Basically this is another thing to take into account when considering moving to SV, I suspect.
Most people that would buy this would also take a class at Flywheel/Barry’s Bootcamp/Rumble/Soulcycle/F45 which come out to $25-$35 per class depending on package and region. If you want to work out 2x per week you’re at $200-$300 per month. (I know folks in SF for example that take more than 2 classes per week and sometimes more than 2 classes in a single day.)
Compared to that a peloton is really cheap. And you don’t have to deal with going to the studio and finding a time slot that isn’t booked and works with your schedule.
I know quite a few coastal elites that definitely pay the premium for these group workout classes.
Anecdotal, but that is the target audience.
I can definitely see upper-middle class consumers buying something like this, but I'd have thought it's slightly out of reach for "Average Joe and Jane".
It only does so with our (average) consent. If more people refused to buy these things, and were willing to invest in non-subscription model then we'd have those options too.
A major problem is people wanted SaaS like free upgrades and maintenance for life at a pricepoint that hasnt risen in 30 years. I remember buying video game cartridges for $60 in 1990 ($120 in today's dollars). No updates, no support, no cloud servers to keep running.
Now people balk at paying $60 dollars for a MMO game, expect constant updates and the server should "not have a subscription fee". It's been a race to the bottom along with our collective experiences.
My dumb monkey brain is a sucker for seeing numbers go up and getting awards, and comparing my improvement to friends and family.
The only thing that's ever gotten me to stick with a workout routine is finding one that my smartwatch can completely track and show my progress using some algorithm that distills it down to a "score". It instantly turns something that I hated doing into something where I'm reading up on how to get better.
The score is hit or miss, but it does show trends over time pretty well.
Call me when the watch comes with a buttprobe to actually track realtime caloric burn, that'll be interesting.
Peloton published the stats of their purchase cohorts in their S-1 (and probably in subsequent reports, but I haven't read them). At least among those who maintain a $39/month Peloton subscription ("Connected Fitness Subscribers"), the frequency of use increases over time. From https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519...:
> We have consistently seen workouts increase over time. On average, our Connected Fitness Subscribers completed 7.5, 8.4, and 11.5 workouts per month in fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. Usage drives value and loyalty, which is evidenced by our exceptional weighted-average 12-month Connected Fitness Subscriber retention rate of 95% across all fiscal year cohorts since fiscal 2016.
…
> Average Monthly Workouts per Connected Fitness Subscriber are higher for our most recent cohorts and engagement for each cohort has been consistent or improved over time.
S-1 page 63 has more. Also, at least as of the S-1, churn (called "Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn") from those cohorts was also very low - roughly 0.5-0.9% per quarter or ~3%/year. That means Connected Fitness Subscribers includes the vast majority of those who purchased a bike.
In 2019 when the S-1 was filed, I put a few more details here: https://twitter.com/troyd/status/1167582830425075712
Now that I’ve finished my home weight gym, I will likely never start up my gym membership again.
And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'.
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY offset by the sunk-cost fallacy - you can't event get ride metrics off the thing without a subscription. Most people will guilt-pay the $40, just so their $2K bike works...
I don't know what Peloton displays to end users, but FWIW, the definition they use for prospective investors is much more stringent. From https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519... page 66:
> We define a Workout as a Connected Fitness Subscriber either completing at least 50% of an instructor-led or scenic ride or run or ten or more minutes of “Just Ride” or “Just Run” mode.
I always chose the classes done by this one enigmatic instructor, but would branch out to others sometimes.
You don't just get hooked on the exercise, you get hooked on the instructor and the social experience. I can definitely see this happening with mirror and lululemon. Sign me up.
Paying for something, and having an expected time to show up and participate is _powerful_.
Some people have the drive and motivation to actually make themselves stick with an exercise plan. For the rest of us, having peers involved, and paying money is the equivalent motivation as a grade on an assignment in school... you do the assignment because of the grade, not because you just wanted to.
Find a local FleetFeet or favorite exercise store and sign up for a summer run class for 4 weeks, and see your improvement and motivation increase.
They are great community events, and the organisers are proud that average finish time is gradually creeping up as more slower runners (and walkers) get involved. I started several years ago aged 52 and am now coming in at about 26 minutes, 10 minutes faster than my first run. Obviously they aren't running at the moment, apart from New Zealand, but check-out your nearest one. www.parkrun.com
You didn't pay for it, but the motivation is the community in this case. You've probably met some people there, and everyone shares in the experience. That's powerful as well.
Although, I still think paying for the classes to get started is a better way for most people. "Skin in the game" sort of thing, and can be a good mental excuse to leave the office and go to the class, instead of pushing it off to "tomorrow".
> Obviously they aren't running at the moment
That's sad... I can't see why people can't exercise with masks or whatever during Covid. A lot of people will lose all their progress and motivation.
This said, I probably won’t buy a Mirror (or a Peloton, or any other fitness-gadget) because I know that my issues with regularity and noncompliance to routine cannot be fixed with “mind hacks” or gamification. Whenever I have a “come to fitness-Jesus” moment, I just need a pair of shoes and shorts to go for a run, and a food scale, and I’m ok for a few months.
I’m not sure I would put the Peloton and Mirror in the same category. The Peloton is an spin bike, and does a good job bringing the spin studio experience into the home. Spin is fairly popular way to exercise. The high cost of Peloton is also still less than any spin studio I’ve been to.
Both have gamification which I think is useful. I like metrics, so the Peloton works for me much like power lifting does. The part of the Peloton I don’t care about is the community aspect, but my wife is pulled to workout because her friends have worked out and will see if she stops.
On average, our Connected Fitness Subscribers completed 7.5, 8.4, and 11.5 workouts per month in fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. Usage drives value and loyalty, which is evidenced by our exceptional weighted-average 12-month Connected Fitness Subscriber retention rate of 95% across all fiscal year cohorts since fiscal 2016.
I’m more curious as to what this offers over watching a YouTube exercise class.
True, but you'll own that equipment forever, and it holds its resale value pretty well. As far as I can see, the Mirror hardware is useless without the monthly $40 subscription. There's always a risk with something like this that the company goes bankrupt, leaving you with an expensive wall-mounted TV that plays nothing but a black screen.
I'm also guessing it's mainly seasoned gym-rats building $1500 home gyms, and they all know what they're doing. Mirror is presumably targeting the larger/more clueless segment, who may be more price sensitive (though I suppose Peloton would prove otherwise).
I can see how a more extensive piece of equipment could lead to more consistency, but I am not willing to spend the money to find out. Companies that will rely largely on subscription services would need to get creative to keep me on board.
I've only ever seen working out at home long term for very disciplined people and it's not large group either.
I have a dip station and a bench and some dumbbells.
You can get maybe 30-40 exercises out of that and bodyweight exercises. It gets old quick. I'd love to do cable stuff or step machine, etc.
IMHO learning proper motion takes so long that after working out constantly for 8 years, I don't think I'm confident that I know 40 different strength training motions to a sufficient degree. Heck I was benching for a year before I got /good/ at it. (This was before the plethora of YT fitness videos, it is much easier to learn now!)
It'd be interesting to see relative drop-out rates for home-gym-goers vs commercial-gym-goers. I suspect the former is far higher.
It's probably not as important from a commercial perspective though. A sale's a sale, no matter if the equipment never gets used.
Echelon Reflect, https://echelonfit.com/products/reflect-small. This one is interesting cause Echelon are a large, established company, though it seems like their position might be lower cost versions of other popular fitness products. They also have a Peloton competitor.
FORME Life, https://formelife.com/. Similar to Mirror but also has a resistance component via cables and various attachments. They’re betting on the use of AI and virtual trainers will differentiate them. I think they’re the newest product, I’m not even sure their commercial systems have launched.
Tonal, https://www.tonal.com/. Similar to FORME but their focus is mostly on the resistance/strength training side of things. They were, as far as I know, the first of these to launch and they’re still the most interesting to me because the concept is so novel, the tech is cool, and their software looks really nice. Think “Peloton for strength training,” as far as I can tell.
I’m sure there are more launched and on the way.
Which brings me to what I think really sets Tonal apart..
I was a very early iPhone adopter and I vividly remember showing people the phone and what really got them hooked/interested was: pinch-to-zoom and the "rubber-banding" inertial scrolling. Both interactions of which demonstrated beautifully what a no-physical button, multi-touch slab of glass could do that nothing before it came close to... and most importantly, it felt a little like magic.
With Tonal it is a very weird feeling to "turn on" the weight. It's like you hit a button (built into the handles/bar/screen or your watch) and boom it's full-force to whatever weight you set with zero sound/noise.. it's very impressive.
I thought maybe this was just something that struck me but I've had numerous friends who are much more experienced with weight lifting try it out and they are so surprised and impressed.
Not trying to sell people on Tonal just saying that after seeing people's reactions to it I can totally see it being a viral type product that sells high-price to early adopters then lowers entry-level price as economies of scale allow it (then introduces new subscriptions, accessories, upgrades, better models to keep high margins for customers who can afford it).
Now, my suspicion is that the target demographic for this "works out" for social benefits, not for actually making fitness progress. I say this because someone who takes fitness seriously would never drop $1500 on an accessory that a pen and journal wouldn't be more than capable for. For that kind of money a home gym is more than accessible. Even a few kettlebells for even 1/4th of that would get someone into phenomenal shape. For a significant amount of my fitness career I did yoga at a local studio and met many of the target demographic. Many wanted a way to stay in shape while also having a social aspect. This abrogates the social aspect while having a sub par fitness experience. I can only think of a demographic that doesn't understand fitness at all, has significant money, and doesn't want the social aspects of a group fitness class; this demographic is probably niche.
I recall how a lot of "globo gyms" make tons of money at $10-40 per month, and why a boutique gym struggles at $200 - the globo gym capitalizes on people basically buying a membership, and basically not sticking with it, but... you know, not quitting just out of guilt.
And it sure seems like Peloton established that the $39/month price point can work.
If the Coronavirus problems extend into 2021 (very likely), I bet this purchase is going to be real amazing, since there will be a grip of Average Joes who will probably fork up the big purchase for Christmas to start up classes as a New Year's resolution, and then just stick with monthly classes "just because"
If you want community and pre-crafted workouts, you could drop $20 month on Parkour Visions[1] for example, and help support a real community of people instead of some mega-corp. If you just want to workout at home you could drop the $1500 entry price for Mirror on a fantastic home setup. Or you could drop $50 on some gymnastic rings and head to /r/bodyweightfitness Or you could join a local club doing whatever floats your boat.
[1]: https://parkourvisions.org/online-classes-1 Their online stuff is fairly good for what it is, and getting better. Their in person stuff is excellent and if you're in Seattle you should check it out once the pandemic is over.
I wish more people thought this way. I've seen a lot of little used home gyms over the years (weights, treadmills, stationary bike, etc.). All you really need is your body and a way to move it to get in really good shape, unless strength (weight set) is specifically your goal. I have a TRX suspension trainer (more expensive than the rings) from 12 years ago, I got it on the recommendation of my roommate (it works well if you don't have a reliable place to mount rings, like when living in an apartment). I still use it, it's 8' from my current position. Between that, a yoga mat, and running shoes I'm pretty much set. Spend some money on a personal trainer to work on your form and routine, and you're done other than making it a routine.
By the time you get to the point where you need weights to keep progressing, you'll be really strong. Bodyweight training also improves muscular coordination, balance, and flexibility as well, which all have major benefits. I highly recommend it for beginners--you don't even need to buy rings or a bar necessarily if you can find a good tree branch.
Regarding a tree branch, I agree. But good trees are hard to find here in the western part of the plains, and a good six months out of the year I can’t reliably go outside for exercise (and for a couple months pretty much can’t). That’s really the main reason I want a pull-up station in the house.
I've worked professionally in this field (making software to help people get fit) and at the end of the day the fitness program I purchased was a lot better than the one I came up with on my own.
Plug: bodbot is an amazing app, I saw more results with it in 3 months than I'd seen in 2 years of having a personal trainer!
We're a Peloton and Hydrow family. We have friends with the mirror thing. These are prestige items for humble brags and typical keeping-up-with-the-joneses for relatively vain (as opposed to health conscious) upper-middle class to wealthy suburbanites.
If you want to understand the market, lurk on the Peloton Mom Facebook groups. It won't take long.
Edit: anyone interested in purchasing these products should know, the Peloton is a barely mediocre spin bike attached to an incredible digital experience. It's a blast to use. The Hydrow is a top notch erg attached to an abysmal digital experience, it sucks unless you use it without the screen. I haven't used the mirror thing but my wife's friends that have it don't like it.
Ok, so...what if you _don't_ pay a $39/month subscription fee? Does this $1850[0] mirror do anything standalone? I think the answer is either no or yes but not much, but I can't tell.
[0] - Buying the $1500 mirror requires you to also buy the $100 "starter pack" and shipping is nominally another $250 without the promotion. Though for all I know the promotion is just always happening.
These guys are just taking advantage of pandemic. Once its done people will go out. Exercising at home is never the same as going out and socializing around at the gym outlet.
Or you can just watch fitness classes on YouTube for free?
Maybe I just don't have enough unwanted money to see the appeal of this.
The totality of the experience matters, we know that by now. The sum of all the differences is a big thing. Maybe literally 'seeing yourself' is a big diffentiator.
That said - my scepticism is over the price tag of something that has yet to be proven.
CEO's get it in their heads all the time that they think they know what the market is doing, and they just snap something up for a lot of money without considering a lot of the details.
I worked for 'Big Corp' that almost bought a Wifi music player - literally nobody on the team thought to actually try the music player. And why would they? Actually using the product isn't anyone's job! It looked good on paper but it was a terrible product.
I think there's real difference, though.
Peleton is a true integrated solution, where the bike and screen are synchronized to the workout program.
Most people already have a tv in their living room. I just don't see that there's much difference between Mirror and that.
Sure - there's some opportunity for 2 way communication, but that's never going to be the way most interaction is going to happen. There's plenty of personal trainers all over the place for people who want that sort of thing, and most people find a true in-person experience much more fulfilling.
All kidding aside, I think there is value in convenience. Whether or not that value is >= $1500 + $40/mo is a personal question (not saying that such a person exists in any meaningful quantity). I'm not really interested in this product either, but I'm also sure there are a lot of things I spend money on that others would find incomprehensible.
> Kidding aside...
Are they kidding though? I'd s/millennials/people, but otherwise I think there's some truth there. Since that kind of exercise instruction and motivation can be delivered via a TV or laptop.
On the contrary it's closer to e-health, you're connecting to a professional for some advice, but unlike e-health I imagine either that professional will be concurrently servicing lots of clients or that compensation for that professional will be dirt poor since 39$/mo isn't nearly enough for a personal trainer - the first one near me that I could find on the web runs about 150/hr so some serious corners will be getting cut unless Mirror is only usable for like... fifteen minutes a month? Or well, given that price difference I wouldn't be surprised if this was essentially an extremely expensive version of buying a projector and throwing Yoga w/ Adriene up on a wall.
If people no longer go to gyms, they don't need to buy lulu.
Some article pointed out that the mirror has some potential to be a useful form factor for information display alongside phone, laptop, tablet, watch, book reader, and Alexa/Google Home display.
Could of been a great purchase by Google - matching your Youtube video viewing with celeb/fitness instructors.
So... a Tv?