The story of how Intel managed to screw up graphics, mobile, and now it’s desktop/server chips... that’s almost making IBM management look good at the moment.
It's - of course - very small scale and early days at the moment, but the pricing is very positive and it's something people are starting to think about as a real viable option.
If I have a database and some Java or Ruby running on some Linux then why would I care whether it is on x86 or anything else?
However are those ARM CPUs going to be made by NVIDIA?
It seems to me that there are other fabless chip producers out there capable of doing this.
Databases, Java, and Ruby, are well-optimised for running on AMD64. Are they all as well-optimised for running on AArch64, for example? I'm not so sure. I still see basic intrinsics being implemented for Java on ARM. I think people may be in for a bit of a shock when they try ARM with some common software.
Remember there has been a tremendous amount of effort made to make VM's like the JVM and v8 performant on ARM for mobile. Turns out all those intrinsics scale just fine when presented with your typical "Business Application" workload.
I think Intel is especially in trouble with JVM workloads as it's very rare for libraries to call out to native code (unlike Python).
You really can just drop you jar on an ARM (m6g), AMD (m5a) or Intel (m5, m5n) expect the same results. After a bit of hesitation it will become just a standard part of cloud price optimization.
Cloud operators win - Chip vendors get commoditized.
(Modulo specialized workloads like HPC, ML and such - but to the topic, that's not to Intel's strength)
This doesn't reflect what I'm seeing at all - in fact I'm seeing basic ARM intrinsics still being added to the Graal compiler in the last few weeks!
https://github.com/oracle/graal/pull/2588
> You really can just drop you jar on an ARM (m6g), AMD (m5a) or Intel (m5, m5n) expect the same results.
Not without these kind of basic intrinsics you won't!
As for client computing, ARM is taking over the increasingly irrelevant PC/Mac after having overwhelmingly won mobile, and IoT will also be ARM.
Furthermore, Trump's trade war against China will claim Intel as collateral damage. The Chinese will switch to RISC-V or the AMD-licensed but made in China x64 chips:
https://www.anandtech.com/show/15493/hygon-dhyana-reviewed-c...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/How-SoftBank-s-s...
Now, a significant, growing chunk of the market is in AWS, Azure, GCP, etc. Those vendors get favorable terms and make it harder for Intel to segment the market to maximize profits. When Intel was calling on me a couple of years ago, they were pushing storage hard (ruler, etc), but I don't see OEMs embracing Intel branding as storage, and Samsung seems to be winning deals that I'm involved in.
What on earth for? My dentists office has a couple of old Opterons. What were yours using their Xeons for?
When it's time to refresh, it will be 100% cloud.
That's a great observation.
For instance, I recently worked on a project to provide services to insurance agents via the cloud.
To me, it was interesting because it offered a lot of value for an insurance agency. Basically the last thing an insurance agent wants to worry about is some server in a closet that has a Blue Screen of Death.
“Originally Windows 10 (as distinguished from Windows 10 Mobile) could run only on PCs that were powered by x86 and x64 processors. Now, Windows 10 desktop can run on machines that are powered by ARM64 processors with the Fall Creators Update or newer. The power-saving nature of the ARM CPU architecture allows these PCs to have all-day battery life and support for mobile data networks. These PCs will provide great application compatibility and allow you to run your existing x86 win32 applications unmodified.”
I could have kicked myself for not buying AMD stock years ago, even joked about it with some friends at the time but couldn't afford to take the risk. The reason was (rightly or wrongly) Jim Keller returning to work on Zen.
He's worked on a few different and really exciting things since, but he's at Intel now. I suspect they'll sort it out and turn things around, but running their own fabs is their biggest problem now. They aren't competitive with TSMC and they desperately need to be.
https://www.anandtech.com/show/15846/jim-keller-resigns-from...
So are you buying Intel stock now?
Also, the circumstances are much different. AMD was valued at the time as a company circling the drain - there was a lot of upside potential given the low starting point.
Intel is still valued very highly currently even after it’s problems in the last few years.
The thing is - I think they’d need to turn the company around entirely just to justify their current price, let alone any future returns.
They did try a more locked down version of Windows, Windows RT, on ARM. It was predictably a disappointment.
It's only slightly more stupid than following up a smash hit console called a Wii with a completely new one called Wii U!
(I mean, seriously, I'm a proper Nintendo fan but somehow I missed an entire console generation because of stupid naming!)
What it could probably not do is run-on-ARM with acceptable performance for every legacy app.
Windows' bread and butter has always been forever-compatibility (Win API language-of-the-year aside) for long lived business apps.
Apple has never, and doesn't seem to want to, competed on that front.
Things are likely to change as more actual ARM64 laptops appear. Some Windows on ARM64 laptops are already available like the HP Envy X2, the Lenovo Yoga C630, and the Microsoft Surface Pro X.
What makes Windows valuable is the 'legacy' applications.