The limiting factor is not budget or time, but 'stomach'. How elastic are your ethics?
The limiting factor is not budget or time, but 'stomach'. How elastic are your ethics?
To me, it's not far fetched to say that you can't make it happen again. Though I think it's technically possible.
We're missing something big with intelligence. We know neurons and synapses a little bit. We know a few dozen neurons a little, though it's complexity is crazy big.
But that gap between a normal brain down to a few dozen neurons is just boggling right now. There are just so many questions that need to be studied ethically.
It may not be possible to answer them all in a reasonable time window.
Something really new, like radios were to communication, or steel hulls to shipping, is needed in bio to get things moving apace. The tools we have are really great, but they are a bit slow it seems.
Also, the neocortex is somewhat stereotypical, but those long range projections that come in/out at every layer are the things that make the brain so hard to understand. Everything is flying everywhere all at once.
We know the volume of the machinery that constructs it, which allows us to compute an upper bound on the informational complexity of a system capable of constructing human brains.
To me it is totally unreasonable to suggest we will never be able to at the bare minimum mimic that process and grow whole brains.
To me most of the opposition to the idea of artificial intelligence seems to come down to people assuming we're bound to only try to do this with software on a digital computer. But if that proves fruitless, there's no reason to assume we won't try analog systems, or if all else fails try biochemical systems, all the way down to genetic manipulation and tricking cells into growing into brains for us to hook up to computers.
Take all the hard parts of bio normally, and now add in a ton of mitosis, long range movement of cells, hard to detect chemical gradients, cell-to-cell junctions, and pure random chance. All just going bananas fast for 'normal' bio processes.
It is a crazy tough field to get work done in. No wonder no one uses mammals to do anything.