Hacker News Reader

Comment by marcusverus | Hacker News Reader

This is sage advice.

Warren Buffet is such a firm believer in this principle that he bet a hedge fund manager $1 million that he couldn't beat the S&P over a decade[0]. Buffet won. The S&P beat the manager by 5% ANNUAL return.

Hedge fund managers pick stocks all day, every day. If these guys with Ivy League finance bona-fides aren't able to consistently beat the S&P, you should really think about whether you'll be able to beat it in your spare time.

[0]https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/306846

View on HN

> he couldn't beat the S&P

if someone has bought FAANG + MS + TSLA 10 years ago - would s/he beat S&P ?

yes, but he wouldn't find a lot of clients interested in paying him 2 & 20 for such a simple strategy

Also, just so little companies is very risky. E.g. if Tesla flopped you'd probably underperform

If someone bought FAANG + MS + TSLA today and compared it to 10 years from now would they beat the S&P?

That's basically the point. It's easy to beat the S&P with knowledge in retrospect.

For an example where betting on tech (tech startups, at least, which is considered a hot sector) hasn't played out, cnsider the Vision Fund.

Vision Fund had no vision fund. Their portfolio companies were useless right off the bat

Easy to say in hindsight, eg companies like WeWork while obviously shit now definitely looked like it would revolutionise an industry at the time.

Vision Fund had vision. Their portfolio companies were useless right off the bat

Sure, in hindsight. I would argue that all of those stocks had their negatives in 2010 that could easily cause investors to look elsewhere though. The real question is what stocks are you going to buy today to beat the S&P over the next 10 years? It probably won't be that same bundle as in 2010.

That's like betting on the Patriots for the 2019 Super Bowl.

It already happened and we know the outcome. Hindsight is 20/20.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com