Many of my friends are posting the same things you state on their social media, and are making it clear they won't be left behind this time.
Not sure what all that means, but it's fascinating.
For me, the real value in Bitcoin wasn't the small-dollars money I made in trading it for lunch money, but rather the exposure to the psychology of day-trading in a volatile market.
Unless your friends are playing the game with leverage, a short-term speculative play will only yield spectacular financial success if the government decides to print a spectacular amount of money.
If you can impart one idea to friends buying into this, or any, market, it might be this: "Don't play for more than you can afford to lose."
Money printer go brrr is funny, but it's not capable of propping up the entire market forever. There's a flight to safety that happens when countries really start printing.
Great for making the economy appear solvent, terrible for everything else.
Historically no one has been able to inflate assets, without inflating the real economy. If the Fed's QE approach is having this effect then even as a dollar spender you would want to hold assets above all else.
From a pure economics standpoint it's feasible to have a society where only some people can afford an asset, and everyone else pays a comparatively small fee to rent the asset roughly equivalent to their entire disposable income. This is a pretty terrible system overall where assets are allocated to those with money and ROI is bounded by the amount that can be. extracted from a servitude class.
The point of this example is that we should not constrain our economic concerns to simple hyper-inflation, as that can mislead us into thinking that as long as we aren't observing consumer price inflation we can print money indefinitely.
Nathan Tankus goes over this one facet quite well [1] which is that essentially landlords are going to burn themselves down trying to extract rent from tenants that will fundamentally be unable to pay due to the coronavirus. Once those people are forced out of their homes then we'll see the crisis hit full speed.
[1] https://nathantankus.substack.com/p/suspending-evictions-is-...
This is normally great for the dollar. Where else are you going to go? Switzerland has had a "negative rates, please go away" policy for a while now.
That is my argument: The stock market is going to tank and these meme stonks only go up are going to look chilling in retrospect.
The problem is that these people are just gambling. Do you really think they have some insight into the market that thousands of Quants and Traders on Wall St. don't have? Go to Vegas, you will see plenty of people flashing cash around when they win on the Roulette table or hit a streak in Blackjack. Are these guys genius players or are they the inevitably of table odds?
With regular stocks, sure they might well be in a bubble but if you knowingly invest money in a bubble, you have to time the pop. If you bought bitcoin at $14k you made almost 50% in a few days but if you didn’t sell then, you’d have been underwater for years