Comment by jakeogh | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jakeogh | Hacker News Reader

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dupe from a month ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23473335

(junk study; assumes the masks are effective and then makes predictions based on that assumption https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23477485)

RE: Forgot? That's backwards. The government operates only with the consent of the people. It's why we have juries.

For how long are you ok with the fake masks that say right on the box not designed for viruses? Forever? Pretending a it's going to just go away is getting old. Roughly 1/3 of common cold viruses are corona-class.

We all know the typical hand wave explanation about droplets. Sneezing or coughing are the only significant producers of large particles that the fake masks catch, and I haven't seen a person sneeze or cough in public in a oddly long time.

CDC Influenza and pneumonia deaths by influenza season and age: United States, 2008–2015: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pn... (these are not estimates, see the footnote)

  2015-2016
  Flu: 7,961
  Pneumonia: 131,858 
  All: 1,769,940

Mask psychology: https://stpauls.vxcommunity.com/Issue/Us-Experiment-On-Infan...

Deliberate problems: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGAlQbWCi6Y

Covid-19 death vs COVID-19+ death: http://v6y.net/1541e03e6cfd1442590bc7b5476f88c30a29a0d881bdb...

Excess deaths are the only real measure: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Well, there are studies suggesting standard surgical masks are at least partly effective against viruses. In one study, they were showed to be equally efficacious against influenza as FFP3, probably due to incorrect donning and doffing. See this review. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-is-the-efficacy-of-standa...

Thanks for the link.

In primary care staff. Up close with sick patients. And then... as you mention, partially. In a large building where people are keeping their distance, and not coughing... asymptomatic or not infected (hence not viral shedding) partially goes to no effect at all.

The evidence that N95 is the same as the pointless blue mask isn't surprising, neither are designed for viruses. I doubt that the blue masks are getting incorrectly installed, it's healthcare professionals, and the mask has no face mate other than the nose metal.

I’ll be honest, I don’t really follow your argument. If they are partially effective, it helps reduce the R value, which prevents transmission on a population level. If it is partially effective with those with a high level of viral shedding, I don’t see why it would be less effective for those with lower viral loads. It seems reasonable to assume that masks will help to reduce transmission, until further robust evidence shows they don’t. I mean what is the alternative?

Additionally, interesting article suggests that salt infused masks have increased efficacy against viral particles. Perhaps using salt infused masks would be even better?

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956

Or we observe reality of every Asian and European country with mandatory masks crushing the curve after introduction.

But hey, a 30 cents a day intervention is clearly too much to ask of Americans

Yea, lets just give up on the whole personal responsibility and free speech/movement thing... gov's mandating medical procedures is always just fine. Line up. Right?

Anyway.... why rely on a (no kidding) fake study?

Data please. Excess deaths and treatment protocol preferably.

Which professional published best case death estimate did we not beat?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23407130

There is a country that banned the fake masks. Plenty of US states have ~95% fake mask use... MI is easily >99% in stores. Yet the overall excess death rate is -much- higher in the authortarian states.

Guess what's not enven -mentioed- in the latest DOE guidance for COVID-19 transmission:

Dept. of Energy: "What every American and community can do now to decrease the spread of the coronavirus" https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2020/03/f72/COVID_19...

Why not answer? --Why not use the masks forever?--

Speaking of inexpensive treatments that are actually effective: https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/ful...

Or... ya know... concerned people could use a real mask for viruses. Nah... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23730633

Which authoritarian states are you talking about. Sweden?

In about two month the casualties in the US will exceed WW2 - and likely long term disability victims will range in the millions. So yea, personal responsibility for the win, totally works every time when you have Covid Karen and Typhoid Mary

I understand the comparison and think the us is having a hard time fighting the virus with its mostly unhealthy population. But I agree a bit with (my understanding of) the parent.

The US could make a lot of laws to reduce the number of deaths from all diseases. Tax fast food, make it illegal, whatever. But we decide against that. I feel like people saying "this can save people and doesn't cost that much" are not taking into account that a lot of things can be done and potentially save people, but we have decided as a society not to do them.

Also comparing WW2 deaths vs covid death is a terrible comparison. Most deaths during WW2 (in the us) mustve been from healthy, young men vs covis where it's mostly the old and already sick.

US states with the most authortarian COVID-19 responses have the highest excess deaths.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united... (sort by fatality rate, still skewed, excess deaths are the only real measure, note how some obvious cols dont have totals, must have been to hard to sum?)

Wall to wall MSM doom about AZ @ 1.81%!

"In about two month the casualties in the US will exceed WW2 - and likely long term disability victims will range in the millions."

False. Note you dont even try to source that with excess deaths. I linked and even posted the normal death counts. --What's the non-covid-19 pneumonia # for this pandemic?--

Excess deaths (see cdc link above) are the only reliable statistic. And they should be a list of pairs, (birth_date, death_date).

Comparing this with WW2 ~500k dead comparitively young people is just wrong (seriously, why even comment if you are going to ignore the yearly #'s? Was 2016 WW2 too?). This branded flu season is maybe roughly 2x a normal flu season, and if we look at excess deaths only, or factor in what happens when people avoid the doctor for months.... it's less than that.

WHY NOT use the masks forever?

Where in these places has normality been resumed? When can we go back to seeing smiles?

Have you considered the long term social cost of reducing interaction between people? Or is that the plan?

There is no end goal here. Just a bunch of short term reactions that are based upon fear and propaganda not hard data. Why so much social change for a virus where the median age of death is over 80, and the majority of the population under 40 are not impacted at all.

There have been an estimated 31.5 million deaths this year so far on Worldometer. 1.5% of those were Covid. How many of that 1.5% would have made the end of the year? It's time to get some perspective and control those amygdalas.

> Why so much social change for a virus where the median age of death is over 80

The “social change” is why the media age of death is so high; the elderly are the least able to withstand the supportive measures necessary to survive serious COVID-19 illness, and it is the “social change” that has kept the number of simultaneous cases down to the level where those who need it are likely to get the proper supportive care.

Without that, the median age of death would drop considerably, as well as the number of deaths skyrocketing.

Of course, just because death is both the most serious adverse outcome and the one for which statistics are easiest to compile doesn't mean it's all we should care about.

> How many of that 1.5% would have made the end of the year?

The vast majority of those in the developed world. Sure, in the US the median age of death may be a little over 80, but life expectancy at age 80 is 9 years for women, 7 for men.

> Where in these places has normality been resumed? When can we go back to seeing smiles?

South Korea. Restaurants are fully open, cafe's are full, busses and trains are so packed during rush hour that you're pushed up against three or four other bodies that you'd prefer not to be so close and personal with.

Strictly speaking, yes there is a second wave. Many weeks ago it was <10 new cases/day, which has now climbed to a steady ~60 new cases/day.

But that number isn't exploding, it's been consistent for several weeks now. Nearly everyone goes about their daily lives, only that they all wear masks.

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