All it takes is ~500 tests in each state per week to get a significant sample size. And, it would definitively answer what the population infection rate is, and how it’s trending.
You can blame ignorance or anti-science beliefs for the problems in some states, but the California state government clearly takes the virus seriously, is following expert advice, and still can't meet testing and tracing goals. Something else is going on here. Dysfunction of government is the answer.
The Federal government is pushing responsibility onto states, and states are pushing responsibility onto county governments. Most county governments are not equipped to deal with pandemics. There is just no way this is going to go well. The countries that did a good job testing and tracing had a central coordinated effort from the top.
Failure to execute is why I will not support another lockdown. We squandered the time we bought with the first lockdown, and I don't see a reason to believe it would go differently the second time. Not with the government we have.
They already have enough actionable data to identify where the outbreaks are, how fast they're spreading, etc. but local governments will make decisions however they want anyway.
If our federal government wants to push us to re-open, the best thing they could do is provide a substantial amount of federal funding so that tests are available, for free, to anyone who wants one.