I think that the point being made was that there's nothing in Mastodon to counteract the natural tendency of people to concentrate in a relatively small number of individual online spaces.
A quick eyeball of the English-language instances listed on instances.social, sorted by # of users, would suggest that this is true. There are a couple very large general-purpose instances, but after that it's largely much smaller topical communities.
My hypothesis would be that, if one tracked these numbers over time, it would turn out that the larger ones aren't just bigger, they also grow at a faster rate. So, if Mastodon were to grow to the scale of one of the major social networks, we'd also find that the users were mostly all clumped into a single instance that's roughly the size (and level of nastiness) of one of the major social networks.
At which point, from a social impact perspective, the fact that Mastodon is, from a technical standpoint, open and federated, would be beside the point.