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Comment by taf2 | Hacker News Reader

Interesting, I wonder if when we're developing the vaccine, ability to easily mass produce the vaccine is a factor... I imagine the biggest issue once we have a vaccine is going to be how to get it out to everyone quickly enough... like I can see critical care workers and then maybe elderly and it being this really long time before it can be available to everyone... or do you start mass production of the vaccine and avoid distribution until you have enough to get everyone vaccinated so that you have the protection period of 3-4 months? Interesting to think it's not just the science of the vaccine but also the application of the vaccine that can be a factor... In the meantime it's promising that we're also learning how to treat the infection better and better...

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Recently talking with my dad about all the situation and the vaccines, he brought up a case he studied when doing an MBA in the 90's: a vaccine where they used rats as bio-reactors. In tests and trials the vaccine was great, but it was so hard to produce and care for thousands of rats during the incubation period that in the end it wasn't economically viable.

He vaguely remembers the case as something from the 50's or the 60's and todya we have better technology all around. But yes, I understand that most labs working on vaccines do take into account the potential difficulties in production.

I would guess that the economics of production of a COVID-19 vaccine will be significantly more attractive than other vaccines.

The economics will be different (more interesting/tempting) indeed. The point of the anecdote was that vaccine fabrication has been understood for a long time in the context of the scale it's required (again, the case was from the 50s-60s). I don't think any of the "promising vaccines" that are being tested now would fall in the trap of such a production scaling problem. Labs know this will be demanded in the billions.

> and then maybe elderly

That will be a really interesting question for the modellers, because vaccinating those who pose the highest danger of spreading the disease might have a much greater impact. If side effects turn out big you might even end up wanting to vaccinate everybody but the elderly.

AIUI, mass production of the Oxford vaccine has _already_ started.

Yeah, this is one big thing that's pulling the delivery times closer vs historical timelines.

Governments essentially said "If you can demonstrate reasonable efficacy and safety, go ahead and start mass production. If your Phase III trials fail, we'll make you whole and dump the doses in a landfill."

Otherwise, you had to wait the entire Phase III duration before even starting production, whereas now you'll essentially have viable vaccine on Day 0 when the Phase III trail concludes.

One interesting byproduct of this is that we may end up with multiple vaccines becoming available at the same time.

I wonder will people comparison shop.

Expect it'll be quite some time before there's enough open-market inventory available that we have the option to shop (2H 2021).

Governments have too much incentive to purchase and distribute all they can get their hands on.

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