Come on, it was pretty obvious from very early on (during the Wuhan outbreak, then validated in Italy soon after) that the disease did not kill 1%, the symptoms for the vast majority of those that get sick are mild (to even being asymptomatic), moreover that the age skew was extremely strong. The median age of death is over 80!

All these factors together were used to decide on the strategy. Subscribing it to luck is unfair. It is more about expertise or lack thereof. A bureaucrat with little practical expertise is less likely to take risks since they are afraid of being exposed as lacking knowledge. Anders Tegnell most certainly was not afraid of going against the grain.

Introducing lockdowns in nursing homes early on would have avoided probably 60%-80% of deaths. This applies to Sweden and other countries as well.