"Global Catastrophic Risk Survey", 2008 [pdf]
http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/docs/2008-1.pdf
Includes discussion of a "biggest natural pandemic".
Posted to HN, if not discussed, on Oct 2, 2016.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12623582
The question of GCR has been raised numerous other times on HN, though admittedly more recently of late:
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
Infectious disease features prominantly among discussions of GCR:
https://web.archive.org/web/20120912020526/http://gcrinstitu...
Even software executives have suggested concern, this example from 5 years ago:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI
As has the US military, from 2017:
https://www.darpa.mil/program/pandemic-prevention-platform
Economic impacts of pandemic have seen significant scholarly treatment, here looking at 1990-2018:
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=1990&as_yhi=2018&q...
Less black swan than head-buried ostrich, it might appear.