75m MAU in 2008 is very different than 2.6b in 2020.
75m MAU in 2008 is very different than 2.6b in 2020.
The MySpace argument often calls to the transient spirit of social media: one day it's hot, the other it's not. I recall Digg's death too after a controversial redesign. The issue with this argument is that:
1. Numbers not only increase inertia, but social products increase it too. If my friends aren't using a social platform neither am I, usually.
2. Facebook has such a rich culture of A/B testing that they'll never release controversial changes without a deeper understanding of the impact of those changes on engagement. They won't shoot themselves in the foot like Digg did with current leadership.
3. Facebook has a really successful history of acquisitions and its leadership is very aware of social media trends. It catches those trends early.
As a consequence of (1), I'd argue that Facebook has a tremendous moat in comparison to its peers: it has a large amount of users who are more likely to stay put. While Facebook also moves slowly as a consequence of (2) often enough, it can move really quickly on producing novel products.
Facebook certainly will face challenges in the future, but they're likely to be a lot different at this stage.