If it works, and it may do quite well, indeed, it will be a massive blow to cinemas but we need to keep in mind that these are not normal times and people currently have a strong incentive to stay home.
This movie is targeted at tweens/teens and the FOMO effect will be big. So if you have a tween in the house that wants to see the movie, you will pay those 30$. Not to mention the tweens who will be more than willing to shell out their own pocket money for it.
This is not a mass-market price.
The question is whether people are willing to pay the same or a bit less (of course I'm thinking in terms of US/Western Europe prices) to watch new movies at home rather than in cinemas.
At the moment perhaps, but in general I am not sure because I think people go to cinemas not only for the movie but for the whole experience.
But I'm sure that the cunning people of Disney have factored the fact that these are not normal times in the pricing of this specific movie at this specific moment in time, and they'll see how it goes.
Families could group together (A rents the movie, B provide a big screen, C brings the popcorn). That would lower the cost and increase the “experience” part.
At some point if governments do not put restrictions in place and enforce them, and if people cannot be bothered to follow them or to be reasonable then there is little we can do...
Just seems like such a high price point makes piracy justifiable?
They could perhaps accept pre-orders to judge this and then introduce special deals, tie-ins, etc. to sweeten the deal if needed.