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Comment by acomjean | Hacker News Reader

Long term I feel China is going to work around these sanctions and such and end up completely independent of US tech.

That was already China's stated goal in their "Made in China 2025" initiative.

> The initiative encourages production of high value products and services, like aerospace and semiconductors, to help achieve independence from foreign suppliers.[1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025

What other countries have long term plans and initiatives and effectively execute on them as China does?

Chinas success in doing this can in large part be traced to the unwillingness of the U.S and the west to challenge and stop the pure theft of IP from basically all advanced industries and unfair trade practices. This has enabled an immense transfer of IP which gives China an amazing foundation to build upon. Now China has to do the final push to become self reliant, but it's much more feasible than it was say 10-20 years ago.

As far as i am aware no country except for different eras of communism(specifically Soviet) have operated somewhat effectively on production output plans on the scale of entire economy.

Feasible in 10-25 years, IF there is no political turmoils, persistent calamities and foreign invasions. Recent 3 decades of positive progression doesn't really extrapolate well when it comes to China historically. Take a look at it's 5,000 years of civilization. Usually when into any succession dynasty, she frequently stagnate. If there are major calamities AND foreign invasions, the internal political struggles will initiate a dynastic change and balkanization. China frequently unite (now) and then breakup repetitively throughout the history.

China balkanized repeatedly during its 5000 year civilization because it was a premodern empire. Premodern empires don't have the same tools as modern states to enforce control down to the local level, so they run by co-opting local elites to do their work for them. However, co-opting local elites means that when the center weakens, these elites start raising militia and become independent states. In modern times, no local militia has the firepower to overcome a centralized military. Therefore, you don't get balkanization as long as the political leadership is united and willing to put down uprisings. Balkanization only happens when, in the case of the USSR, the central leadership loses faith and tells the army to stand aside and let it happen. The CCP has studied what happened in the USSR and they've been careful to make sure nobody in the government gets any funny ideas to let balkanization happen.

I would be cautious about using history prior to the industrial revolution in any predictive capacity because the industrial revolution was a major shift in technology, economics, and societal organization. Yes, humans are still motivated by the same wants and fears, but many of the mechanisms that drove premodern events no longer exist today.

> Chinas success in doing this can in large part be traced to the unwillingness of the U.S and the west to challenge and stop the pure theft of IP from basically all advanced industries

I don't know if that had such a large impact. How much quality innovation is either secret or patented? How many patents are simply low quality, low effort trash[1]? Seems like most groundbreaking research is published relatively quickly.

[1] https://www.eff.org/issues/stupid-patent-month

The US has a long term plan to outsource all those things. We're about 2/3rds of the way there.

That'll probably happen in the long term. In the short term, China might answer by completely banning US companies from the Chinese market.

I don't see anything to win here. Probably every large company, including those from the US, have some kind of production facilities, storage or supplies in China. China applying similar restrictions would probably be a worse hit for the US than the current situation is for China.

I doubt the Chinese will take any rash, knee-jerk reaction here. They are very predictable and will stick to what is in their best interest. Since there is no democratic government either, these decisions are not at risk of changing - unless XiJinping loses a coop, which at this point is an impossibility.

if you think about it, we have reached a time in which we are all benefiting from china having a cool head about them and patience. it's really highlighting the power vaccuum that's happening.

I think the die has been cast. A lot of people in fact most americans I would argue not only would be ok with that but want that. Theres two options here. China flourishes and the world is in different start, or it doesn't and the worlds fine. But the current relationship is wholly untenable

I give them all the due blessing, but it would be immoral to continue to let US companies be complicit in helping them

How long will take them to do it without stolen tech from companies from US, Europe, Korea and Taiwan?

What makes you think that the "theft" of tech will slow down at all?

... either that, or they dive the Dow by banning Apple products in retaliation, or they invade Taiwan.

That was always the outcome. It's the road China has been traveling down intentionally. Before the ability to use it against China runs out, the US is using it while they have it to use. China does it everywhere they compete out of a sense of hyper nationalism, necessity to become a superpower and independence (the ability to pursue its national objectives without concerns for sanctions or outside opinion). Russia would love to have the competence to do the same thing (so far all Russia has managed, mostly, is de-dollarization; China can't de-dollarize at this stage due to its exports and tight link with the global economy). China has known for two decades or more what they had to do. Mostly the only difference will be China will pull forward their plans, if and where they can.

They always planned to build up their own semiconductor industry and become heavily independent of foreign semiconductors.

They always planned to build up their own software industry and become heavily independent of foreign software.

They always planned to build up their own jet industry and become heavily independent of Boeing and Airbus.

They always planned to build up their military tech and become heavily independent of Russia.

Insert any given prominent technology here.

Yes. But will they then innovate at the same rate?

I think the more you must guard your words, the things you say, watch how you act, and the more you grow up with this as a child?

The more restrictive your thoughts may be as an adult. The less 'free wheeling', and therefore, more locked into tight, controlled paths.

Further to that, even if the above is not significantly true, there is still the entire "does the work I want to do, the research, threaten PRC dogma in any way?"

And worse...

"Will the work I do, threaten PRC dogma in the future."

On top of all of that, a reduction of international collaboration with others in the field, and so on.

Of course, I could be entirely wrong. But I do think that "restrictive environment" leads to "less creative output", at least in visible output.

Bingo. That’s exactly why I don’t see China surpassing the US or the west anytime soon. They can clone Tesla or Apple as much as they want - but nothing truly groundbreaking will happen, since they have been “inspired” by the west for so long.

This racist superiority complex is the pride before the fall. What exactly is TikTok's recommendation algorithms or Huawei's 5G technology cloning?

Here's a backgrounder on the Huawei IP thefts: https://www.zdnet.com/article/us-charges-huawei-with-rackete...

TikTok's For You algorithm is pretty clearly based on YouTube and Netflix's published recommendation platforms, but I'm not sure why you're framing this so narrowly. The entire product is a Vine clone and they regularly steal content for marketing purposes (c.f. https://twitter.com/xTempex/status/1182185566999318529).

We don't really see this level of abuse from American or European firms who have ethnically Chinese executives. It's not really a matter of race; it's a corporate culture that is more common in highly-competitive markets with weak IP protections. Trying to frame it as racist isn't really productive, especially since the parent comment wasn't specifically talking about Han Chinese, but about the nation.

There is nothing wrong with being culturalist, to be so is absolutely not racist. A black, white, etc orphan child raised in communist China, would grow up in the same culture, with the same beliefs.

Those that decry 'racist', when one complains about China are indeed the true racists, for they think culture and race = the same thing.

They take it a step further by conflating the CCP with Chinese people, Chinese culture and the Chinese nation. This is a tactic I frequently see where proponents of the CCP seek to call any criticism or skepticism racist.

As an Israeli who is not very supportive of the Israeli government, I am very well familiar with this tactic.

> TikTok's For You algorithm is pretty clearly based on YouTube and Netflix's published recommendation platforms

This is true of virtually any recommendation system implemented anywhere and YouTube and Netflix most certainly did not invent any of the basic concepts involved. In fact the core algorithms for recommendations are very classic and the newest techniques can be credited to Microsoft research and Geoff Hinton.

It's the risk that has to be taken. Also it isn't racist a lot of techie in silicon valley are asian. It's a difference in philosophy if anything.

I think the parent comment was talking about innovation in the sense of Peter Thiel's idea of Zero-to-One innovations, not step-by-step improvements of existing technology. In this sense I agree because chinese culture is indeed seeking harmony and unity a lot and thereby seems prone to groupthink and to the detriment of new and different ideas. (Heresy and novelty, anyone?).

How is that racist? I’m talking specifically about the cultural aspects of growing up in China.

Why wouldn't it accelerate it? Their innovation has either already surpassed that of the west or is going that direction.

Because the minefield of chinese tech IPOs in the past year. With scrutiny it hasnt gone well for most chinese tech.

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