And I haven’t actually seen the supposed rental price decrease in SF and the peninsula, other than some 2- to 4-week free rent offers.
That's deep decrease (~33%), I fully expect the effects to show up starting Q4.
Landlords are stubborn beings always thinking they can rent easily and for more. Gotta take a beating with the property being empty for weeks/months before they adjust to reality. (Lettings agents don't care about waiting and pushing tenants out, they make fees either way).
Expect multiple hits downward over the coming year(s) as layoff benefits come to an end, personal savings dry up, evictions are reinstated, properties are foreclosed, etc...