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I can't picture this happening due to the sheer size of the Electron ecosystem. Do you think there's any precedent for this?

John Deere saying you can’t work on your own tractor? 50 years ago this would have been an insane proposition.

I know it’s not the same but something feels similar to me.

Is there any reason Electron couldn’t switch to, say, Firefox?

Electron is really 100% Chromium. I can't see them switching from it (though it would be nice to have a Firefox-base version).

A Firefox based Electron was tried: Positron. It was scrapped for some reason or other (lack of traction?): https://github.com/mozilla/positron