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Comment by ssss11 | Hacker News Reader

I think the western world hoped China would open up over the past 20 years.. unfortunately that strategy has become a spectacular failure

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Would it have been such a failure without the election of Trump?

yes

Trump has only been in power for a few years, so it’s really nothing to do with him. There are enough things we can legitimately lay at his door without making stretches like that.

So strange to be downvoted for asking a question, where a generous reading would be that I was genuinely asking it.

I think the aggressive stance of China coincides with the election of Xi Jinping in 2013, seven years ago. Trump has been in power for 3.5 years, so that's half of this time period. So it certainly _could_ be something to do with Trump.

My question was whether if would have been _such_ a failure.

It seems to me that both Trump and Xi Jinping have benefitted from the trade wars and diplomatic arguments between the countries. There seems little doubt that the Trump administration has given Xi Jinping a window of opportunity where he has been able to consolidate power and conduct aggressive foreign policy... so I genuinely wonder: how important has Trump's disastrous leadership been in the failure of this policy?

Yes, I dislike and disagree with him but it's ridiculous how everything is automatically his fault and a wrong position just because Trump supported it.

So you're saying that Trump takes no share of the blame for the failure of this policy?

Pretty much, it was obvious it faied before he even got in to office.

It seems to me that failure and a real reversal of the course China was on started from 2012 when Xi got power, so yes. Could have happened anyways of course but the change was drastic and clear from that point on.

I agree with your timeline.

Do you not think that the second half of that period, when Trump has been president, that he may have contributed to the problem by providing an opportuniy for Xi Jinping?

Xi Jinping's actions are only minorly influenced by Trump. China are on a 100 year strategy. Trump's Presidency is a tactical curiosity at best.

I don't think Trump (or anyone, really) would have had much impact on China's internal politics during that period, and opening up is very much an internal matter. It's generally hard at this point to see external pressures (small as they are) having much impact at all.

I don't deny that Trump has potentially enabled Xi to make some moves faster and bolder. But those moves would likely have happened anyway and on the bright side it's maybe easier for the world to see what's going with the lies being so obvious nowadays.

Yes. China didn't change its behaviour toward more openness before Trump. Trump forced the conflict about this into the open in his usual charming way. But there was no opening process that Trump interrupted.

So you don't think China became more open at any point between Nixon and the present day?

I do think the underlying problems existed before him. For instance, the west allowed all manufacturing eggs to be put in China's basket for over 30 years without diversifying sourcing. Another example is that China insists you venture with a local company to do business there yet I htink it's very rare (or non-existent) in other countries.

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