The issue with this kind of reasoning is that without any kind of archeological proof to back your hypothesis what you end up with is informed guessing based more on ones knowledge and experience than on scientific facts.
For example, I could formulate a completely different hypothesis about how footwear appeared:
- doing any kind of activity on rough terrain while barefoot increases the risk of injury, like cuts or punctures
- any kind of wound could easily infect and lead to death
- the easiest would be to try and protect my feet wrapping something like leaves, animal skins, etc around my feet
- this is a good solution but this footwear isn't very resilient, hmm, maybe tree bark would work better, it's still flexible but should be more resilient.
- hmm, what else could I do that is better than tree bark, maybe some dried animal skin would be even better
- and so on...
Is this hypothesis better than yours? I don't know without proof, and the interesting part is that they could both easily be true in completely different contexts: different parts of the world, different cultures, different climatic conditions, etc.
So yeah deduction and induction can get you very far but when we're missing so many facts on which to base our hypothesis you can easily get very far in a very wrong direction. This is why I think archeology is fun.
EDIT:
The wikipedia page on footwear also contains a few lines that add another interesting dimension:
> Some ancient civilizations, such as Egypt and Greece however saw no practical need for footwear due to convenient climatic and landscape situations and used shoes primarily as ornaments and insignia of power.