Hacker News Reader

Hacker News

Comment by fiblye | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

fiblye

> I was able to get a large, modern, luxury 1BR in a decent location for under $3K

This sounds like a joke about just how absurd SF rents are.

View on HN

Assuming the 1BR is 700+ sqft and the location is something like SOMA or Hayes Valley this would be a good deal.

Yes SF rents are generally insane.

820sf and right between those two neighborhoods.

And for reference, a Hayes Valley 1bd would still be right above $3k. Or right below with concessions.

Luxury studios are going to $2400 already though.

Expecting further drops.

Yes, there are many people in Central Valley who can now afford to live out their dream of being in "the city".

A change of scenery is a change of scenery. I've met suddenly unencumbered East Coasters that roadtripped across during Phase 1 Shelter in Place, and they are content with the new environment.

I don't see these as demand drivers, as the replacements are not the economic powerhouses that were here: subsidized college kids and tech workers. So its nice if the city gets a diverse culture again, but in the topic of rent and housing prices, I wouldn't expect a rebound so optimistically.

Luxury studios were about that much 10 years ago. I don’t expect drops to be much further. The exodus is already decelerating according to Zestimates I’ve been following closely. I expect prices to drop further for a little bit longer then start to creep back up. Anyone who wants to live in the best weather in the continental USA should lock in their price now.

I also think $2400 is a floor here, but I also think the spread between unit types will get much closer. Instead of a 1bd being $2900, maybe it will be $2490. I've seen this curve compress in a lot of different combinations over the last 3 months.

But the other factor, which I think everyone is still neglecting, is that the exodus was only voluntarily exits. Evictions and foreclosures aren't happening and there is a massive backlog when they do. So with only the current date, November - January is when the fireworks start.

Best weather in continental USA? You mean in Orange County? I lived in Irvine for 6 years and it was essentially an average of 72 all year and mostly sunny days and barely any rain at all. Versus SF which gets way more cloudy and rainy days and isn't as warm.

I've left now but I miss the SoCal weather badly.

It’s subjective of course. I find Orange County far too hot for my own tastes.

What is not subjective is from summer to winter, SF has the least variance in average temperature due to its unique geography.

So that would be, cold and foggy to cold and foggy? San Francisco weather is not usually touted as "good" by most common measures. I'll grant you that it is consistent, but most people appreciate seeing the sun now and then.

the mission is not cold and foggy. took me a while (1.5 aggravating years) to figure out which microclimates were conducive to me.

> right between those two neighborhoods

So, in the tenderloin? Suddenly not a great deal.

A large luxurious modern SRO.

Not quite the Tenderloin. It’s technically Civic Center. Yes, there’s plenty of homeless around, but that’s just SF, right?

> but that’s just SF, right?

No absolutely not. It's literally only a problem in Civic Center/Downtown/SOMA.

Closer to Golden Gate Park / Pac Heights is gorgeous.

That's not really true. I've lived in the Inner Sunset for 2 years, and I've actually noticed an increase in the local homeless population over that time. Obviously not concentrated/encamped in the way they are in the neighborhoods you mention, but still, they're much more present than in equivalent quiet residential neighborhoods I've lived in in NYC or Chicago.

Pac Heights is still great. So are most of the areas surrounding GG.

It varies. There were multiple encampments in the Richmond. 24th and Anza, 20th and Geary, and 16th and Geary for example. The city cleaned them up recently and posted signs about no lodging, but they were there for months before.

Don’t listen to everyone being so negative. I lived in Civic Center for several years. Fine place because it’s so central and easy to get anywhere. Probably not a good place to raise a family but otherwise fine. You got a great deal on rent.

Oh no... I barely tolerate driving through civic center, nevermind walking there. I avoid waking or biking through the filth in the civic center at all costs. I'm not being facetious, I wish you a good time with no ill events, that's definitely a good deal on the rent.

> Yes, there’s plenty of homeless around, but that’s just SF, right?

Not most of the city, no. You moved right into its epicenter.

You're literally in the worst of it.

You're probably at Argenta, Fox Plaza, NEMA or 100 Van Ness. It's a fine place very central to most cool spots. Keep your wits about you and it shouldn't be a problem. I find 4th to 8th St to be the worst of it.

Guy spends about 150 % of my net income just on rent.

I actually re-read the comment to see if he said 3BR. Was disappointed to find that it was 3k for 1BR, absolutely not imaginable in my salary.

Six figure salaries are the norm for software engineers in SF. Hard not to be able to afford a 3k rent as a software engineer.

That's a good deal.

Only because of how insane housing in SF is.

For comparison I own a 2br apartment in Melbourne, Australia. It takes about 15 minutes to walk from here to the heart of the city. My mortgage repayments (including interest) are about $700usd/month.

Better coffee and no human excrement on the sidewalks too.

I live in SF and no excrement on the sidewalk where I live.

Problem with SF is some neighborhoods are being neglected. There’s no penalty for lawless vagrancy, not even a “shoo shoo”. I’ve seen portapotties set up next to tent camps. I guess that’s better than street shitting but it’s a major disappointment to see tent cities encouraged.

> My mortgage repayments (including interest) are about $700usd/month.

Melbourne is not cheap, there must be more to this story. The average house price in Melbourne is $855,428. A $600k unit, 20% deposit, 25y mortgage, cheap 2% rate is $1.4k or USD 1k. + strata fees

Yeah, this person lives in a shoebox in the outer suburbs. We pay double that for a 1920s apartment (so very spacious, but cheap) in a suburb walking distance from the CBD, right next to a tram line.

No I don’t. I’m not in the sticks - it’s a ~20 minute walk to southern cross station from here. I’m not saying how much I paid but it was noticeably less than $600k. My apartment is small for a 2br (It would be uncomfortable with a family) but I live alone and it’s great. It’s bigger than any studio apartment you’d find in SF for $3k/month.

The numbers work out because I had a decent deposit when I bought - which I should have mentioned above since it certainly brings the repayments down. And (I think) let my mortgage broker negotiate for better rates.

30 Yr Mortgage would be 2.75%-3.1% with very good credit right now

Right, I think the parent was quoting an absurdly low rate to point out that even with unrealistically ideal financing, the monthly payment would still be higher than the grandparent's claim.

I'm calling BS on this. I lived in Melbourne for the past 5 years (left 8 month ago) and never saw any 2br apartment that would be that cheap with a standard P+I loan with 10% down.

I guess it's possible if you took out an interest-only loan for only a fraction of the purchase price, but then you've painted a highly misleading picture.

To clarify they don't live "in Melbourne", they live in the outer suburbs. Sure, you can buy a 2BR apartment in Dandenong. Do you really want to?

That’s a deal, it’s not much higher than it was ten years ago (oddly enough, when it was already insanely high)

Really? I was living in a nice not-rent-controlled ~800sqft 1BR in a decent part of the western addition in 2010, for $1700/mo.

$3k might have been common at the high end, but I don't think that was typical.

Only if you don't know how many more jobs there are in SF that pay well enough to afford that than there are in other places.

If salaries don't need to reflect local cost of living, it seems that salaries will be subject to change. Fairly soon?

that's an excellent point!!

You're assuming that salaries are not also impacted by the immense amount of wealth being generated by the Silicon Valley economy, though. And you're also assuming that housing prices will radically change, which I don't think is guaranteed even in the medium-term.

That's not what this article and others are saying. That is, people are leaving and housing is falling. Also, much of the appeal comes from bars, restaurants, boutiques, and such. Those too are falling off the map.

I'm not assuming anything.

Damn. That’s a lot of money.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com