I find it extremely puzzling to counterpose the predictions of disease experts, politicians and economists with regard to COVID.

Disease experts are very cautiously optimistic over a period of years. Economists are in sharp disagreement whether we will see a quick or multi-year recovery, with a few dissenters pointing out the the economic effects could last decades. And politicians seem to have unbridled optimism, which to an outsider can only be explained by access to a persistent vault of champagne.