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Don't forget this one:

Bet 9 (https://longbets.org/9/) - A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.

If it was truly an accidental lab release, it could be a winning bet...

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If reality were in fact a gritty cyberpunk novel, instead of just strongly resembling one, a team of private investigators hired by friends of the Long Now would be the force which finally cracks this case wide open...

That seems implausible, with a whole $400 at stake.

I like this story idea a lot!

In the story universe, The Longs keep a low profile by publishing the bets in dollars.

In fact, an international cabal of power players have $400,000,000 riding on this one. The Longs don’t want to cause alarm.

The Chinese government would of course deny this for as long as it could in the face of almost any future evidence, but the idea is at least possible. (I'm referring to a genuine lab accident regarding a natural virus being covered up as an event at the market instead, not a conspiracy theory about a bioengineered intentional release)

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