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Comment by shasta | Hacker News Reader

"The graph is dramatic."

No, that graph is incredible. Literally unbelievable. 70% accepted in the morning to down below 10% before snack? Either this data is BS or there's some hidden variable here.

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The comments on the original article do suggest another variable. The schedule may not be randomly arranged. The judges or the court clerks could actively arrange for easy cases earlier and more diffficult or complicated cases later. IOW, the variables may not be independent.

Also it's worth pointing out that this was a study on Israeli judges. American legal precedents and opinions and scheduling norms may not apply.

"It’s not possible that someone ordered the cases in a special way. The judges know nothing about upcoming cases ahead of time, so they can’t decide to take a break in the knowledge that an easy positive case is coming up. They also have control over when they set their breaks, so prison staff cannot predictably schedule the hearings in order of ease."

That wouldn't be enough to eliminate the effects of ordering. Sure you'd get some judges that take breaks earlier or later than others, but they'll still have three sets of cases of about the same length at about the same time.

They also have control over when they set their breaks

So... maybe they routinely take a break after a particularly emotionally trying or complicated case? Then we only need demonstrate the messy cases are more likely to produce an unfavorable decision.

Exactly what I thought. The effect is way too big -- if it were that big, convicts would have caught on by now :)

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