Their space launch business will fail hard if the launch market doesn't pick up soon - all their investor presentations and financial forecasts assume 50 launches a year, yet the reality so far this year is only ~5 actual paid launches from external customers.

For starlink, I could imagine 75% of the world banning it simply because the network is run by a foreign company. Governments want to keep infrastructure locally owned and controlled. North America is a tiny fraction of the service area, and the only big funding sources on offer are the US government for serving rural communities, and the US government for military use worldwide.

If both those fall through, starlink will fail. If starlink fails and the launch market doesn't pick up, SpaceX will fail.