At least in europe, both have happened. A meaningful portion of the gains have been from deindustrialization of one kind or another.

This isn't an indictment of all carbon reduction. Most meaningful policies will have reshuffling. There are no perfect moves.

That said, it's important to try and get into the nuance, be skeptical. In this case, the guts are in the "what does carbon offset really mean?"

Any carbon accounting system (tradable credits, carbon taxes, etc.) is abstract. You can achieve "carbon neutral" by buying credits or by actually reducing carbon. FWIW, I think there definitely is a value to DIY as opposed to carbon accounting stuff. IE, powering your own data centre with clean energy is superior to using gas electric and offsetting that with purchased credits.