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But is ‘city mobility’ a lead indicator of ‘rising new COVID cases’, or a lag indicator of ‘declining active COVID cases’? I could make the hypothesis for either (or both), so are you using it to track improvements in a city or prepare for worsening conditions?

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I had never occurred to me that something could be a leading indicator for changes in one direction but lagging in another.

Thanks for upgrading my thinking!

Thanks for the comment! I’ve been doing a bit of research into various economic indicators aiming to help my (business owner) clients, and it pretty rapidly becomes a complicated mess of cause and effect.

Take Unemployment - a lag indicator of economic conditions (things were better/worse last month and so people found/lost work); but also in a small way a lead indicator of economic conditions (more people in/out of work and the wider confidence arising from the news has an impact on future spending).

Probably both-- it's probably why these cycles occur.

Modeling positivity with mobility would be interesting.

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