https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/04/coronavir...
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/04/coronavir...
France - 157,536
Canada - 88,287
Germany - 37,087
The number of people in the US who have died due to government incompetence is in the neighborhood of 50,000-150,000.
Belgium: 320,007
Sweden: 190,186
Just the first Google hit — I didn't do any thorough vetting other than it doesn't appear to be propaganda.
At that of Sweden, about 189k.
At that of Belgium, about 286k
Numbers from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality, assuming a US population of 328 million.
Meanwhile our obesity and asthma rates are sky high and we are mostly an urban population. But we have a government that moved fast and well, a single payer health care system, and so on.
While US federal and state government responses have been incompetent, there are other critical factors such as population density and cultural behaviors. So blaming everything on the government is a "god of the gaps" logical fallacy. And over time I expect death rates to roughly even out over the full span of the pandemic; unless a country can completely eradicate the virus and close their borders, public health measures only delay the deaths rather than preventing. Flattening the curve will only slightly decrease the total area under the curve.
>And over time I expect death rates to roughly even out over the full span of the pandemic; unless a country can completely eradicate the virus and close their borders, public health measures only delay the deaths rather than preventing. Flattening the curve will only slightly decrease the total area under the curve.
What evidence is there for this? Which of our peer nations have had the sustained death or a secondary spike that would indicate that herd immunity is going to be the end result of this pandemic rather than societal change until a vaccine exists?
I don't think that's true. Time delay has a number of actual long-term benefits. Hospitals are less likely to reach capacity. Better treatments can be developed. And, of course, eventually we'll have a vaccine.
As people have been reporting - the hospitals have a huge monetary incentive to code a death as COVID19. If someone comes in and dies, the hospital can run a PCR test, get a false positive then get 10's of thousands for the COVID19 death from the government.
My best friend's dad is currently a Doctor and is fighting his hospital after he transferred two patients to a different hospital to try and save their life. One of the patient died, depriving his hospital of the death funds from the government, which the other hospital got.
Even the fact checkers are admitting that the [entire incentive structure is to count as many people with covid19 as possible](https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-...), but then say "there's no evidence" that there is fraud. A laughable proposition. When there is a bag of money for doing corrupt thing X, corrupt thing X always get's done throughout history.
These deaths are therefore the result of mostly fraud and when the real numbers are considered (probably something closer to 15-25% of what's being reported) then this disease is something that lags behind many other diseases currently circulating in the population that the media just ignores.
>These deaths are therefore the result of mostly fraud and when the real numbers are considered (probably something closer to 15-25% of what's being reported) then this disease is something that lags behind many other diseases currently circulating in the population that the media just ignores.
If the COVID-19 death total is inflated, how do you explain the huge rise in excess deaths? Here is one article that talks about comorbidities and excess deaths.[1]
[1] - https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus...
>The number of people in the US who have died due to government incompetence...
I don't think the US government has a monopoly on incompetence with regard to the pandemic.We're seeing a massive uptick in cases in the UK at the moment, just a couple of weeks after the government encouraged people to go back to work and re-opened the schools and universities.
I live in a university city in UK. Since March we've been told at various times; to work from home if we possibly can, not to leave the area, to only leave the area to visit one other family, to go back to work if we can, to wear masks in indoor spaces, not to mix in groups of more than 12, not to mix in groups of more than 6... etc. etc. No-one seems to know what the regulations actually are from one week to the next... least of all those in charge.
Then, in the past couple of weeks, the new university year has come around and our city has had its annual influx of 100000+ students from all over the UK.
It's so insane it would be laughable, if it weren't putting lives at risk. You've got the city's inhabits being told to minimise contact with other people and not leave their local area unless absolutely necessary and then, after 6 months of following these guidelines we are suddenly inundated with 100000+ outsiders, from all over the country. And this is happening in university cities up and down the land.
If I'd been asked to come up with a scheme to deliberately spread the virus as widely as possible, I'd have been hard pushed to come up with a better one.
I don't know what the situation is elsewhere but in the UK there's also an obnoxious 'spin doctoring' effort ongoing on to try and take the blame for the failure to control the outbreak away from government and onto the people.
The fact that the UK government were one of the last in Europe to introduce a lockdown; the fact that they've done nothing but chop and change the rules & guidelines ever since, so that no-one actually knows what they are; the fact that the government ordered hundreds of thousands of people back to work, schools and universities while the pandemic was still not properly under control are all brushed under the carpet.
Instead, every government announcement on Covid emphasises that tougher measures will be needed if "people don't follow the guidelines". A nice bit of deflection, to blame the victims of their own incompetence for the failure to keep the pandemic under control.
I always find quibbling over this strange. There is a fucking pandemic. Don't mix in groups of any size if possible no matter what the government says. If you have to meet someone do it online, 1-on-1 or outside. We had a baby 4 months ago and saw in total about 10 people over the months. It's totally doable.
This does a decent job. https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/130829568209300684...
England's policy is "you can't be in groups bigger than 6, stay 1m or more apart".
United States: 36%
France: 22%
Canada: 29%
Germany: 22%
Adiposity is the Crucial Enhancer of COVID-19: https://cardiologyres.org/index.php/Cardiologyres/article/vi...
If governments were serious about protecting their populations then they would have put more funding into reducing obesity. No matter what pandemic control measures are taken, many of us are eventually going to get infected. So we all ought to be doing whatever it takes to cut body fat down to healthy levels. Our lives may literally depend on it.
Here are another numbers to consider. 2017-2018 was a pretty bad flu season, and according to CDC, resulted in around 70 000 deaths. When you look at COVID-19 death trends and fit the curve, we're looking at probably 270 000-300 000 deaths before the current epidemics ends. So, COVID-19 is going to be around 4 times as bad as a bad flu season.
2017-2018 flu season was bad, but was not extraordinary. An extraordinary flu season happened in 1968, a so-called Hong-Kong flu. It had, according to CDC, around 100 000 victims, back when US population was 200 million. When you consider per-capita death rates, COVID-19 is less than twice as bad as Hong Kong flu was. We didn't lock down for Hong Kong flu, and I don't think people really paid much attention to it -- the year was 1968, after all.
The above was of course medical harms. The non-medical harm due to COVID-19 is wholly disproportional to non-medical harms for flu, it's orders of magnitude worse. The economic cost (in terms of actual production/GDP lost) COVID-19 just in the US is estimated to have similar economic cost to WWII. What did we gain for it? What was the point of the lockdowns, if we're just letting them up now anyway? We could have just told people to put on masks back in February and have them get on with their lives.
We're lowering the curve. If we let the infection spread unabated, most hospital systems will swiftly be overrun. Just as in Italy when the outbreak first occurred, we would have people dying in the streets due to lack of care, leading to complete and total collapse of trust in the healthcare and governmental systems.
The lockdowns are absolutely necessary to avoid panic and potential societal breakdown. It's hard to imagine because it's not the path we've taken.
The lockdowns happened specifically because at the time, the two places with widespread spread of the virus(China, Italy) had overrun hospitals. The lockdown was implemented to pause the system and determine just exactly how bad this was and come up with a response.
There is no reason to believe that. The hospitals weren't overrun in New York City, where the infection was not only not abated, but in fact the policy of sending infected people to nursing homes, and requiring them to accept them. Texas and Florida had very little cases before they locked down, and only started growing after lockdowns were mostly lifted. At no point were their hospital systems overwhelmed.
> The lockdowns are absolutely necessary to avoid panic and potential societal breakdown.
No, it's the lockdowns that are inducing panic. There was no panic during 1968 Hong Kong flu, which up until recently was worse than COVID-19 -- it only recently over took it. Where was the panic in Sweden?
> The lockdown was implemented to pause the system and determine just exactly how bad this was and come up with a response.
Why did so many lockdown measures persist, then? Sheer arbitrariness of it all shows pretty clearly that at this point is more about politician's power trip and sending message of doing something, and not actual public health concerns.
Governors and mayors shut down churches and assemblies by fiat. People weren’t allowed to see their family. Couldn’t sell goods and services.
You may think that was necessary (and at least some of it was). But That doesn’t change what it was.
A more important metric is, "How many people died prematurely from COVID and how prematurely versus lifetime left?"
EDIT: @enraged_camel: I think you're either missing my point or I'm not communicating it as well as I could. I'm arguing that, when looked at at a higher level (all deaths), 200k is noise in the usual death rate floor.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
...over 200,000.
> Total predicted number of excess deaths since 2/1/2020 across the United States: 201,917 - 262,877
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Statistically, COVID has caused roughly a quarter million more people to die than we expected to die of other causes.
That said, your point about the age of the deceased is a good one. There was something particularly tragic about the death of a young, drafted soldier. That doesn't take away from the vast numbers of parents and grandparents who have died in the United States from this pandemic, though.
There are cases of people not seeking medical help because they were told non-essential visits were to be avoided.
These are all secondary effects given the number of deaths that mentioned COVID in the coroner's report. (See the headline article.)
All of it is due to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, right? There were no other significant national fatality-related events in that timeline, thank goodness. You'll see that the death rate is remarkably predictable over time.
Are these indirectly related to Covid? Are all contemporary deaths Covid induced? Are any lockdown induced but not Covid directly?
Think also about the people who have postponed going to the doctor or dentist due to fears of infection.
I think the number that might bring a better perspective is the number of death
- for any reason per year
- from flu/influenza per year
- ...