It's not guaranteed to break if you actually work with the distro maintainers. They don't want your packages breaking either.
In general, yes they will. You don't have to do much besides communicate to them that it's safe to bump a dependency and won't cause breakage. And you don't have to track down a dozen maintainers either, simply putting it in your release notes where they can find it is enough. The main reason why packages are dropped is because of lack of maintenance, possibly caused by absent or unresponsive upstream. That's what outdated means. Do you think packagers are going through all the trouble of dropping unmaintained versions of Python 2 on a whim?