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Comment by bradly | Hacker News Reader

I have full-time vacation rentals in Hawaii on Airbnb and Vrbo which have been vacant since March. The past couple weeks we have finally started to get inquiries and bookings, with our first guests back arriving in the beginning of November. We've had very few cancellations for our 2021 dates, but we also haven't had our normal stream of bookings for 2021–more of a pause of 2021 activity.

We believe there will be pent-up demand for vacations in 2021 after travel restrictions relax (Maui has had mandatory 14 quarantines in place which end this week). People will have more unused vacation time than normal and quarantine fatigue/cabin fever will also increase demand.

I do agree that air travel will be the biggest barrier for us. The non-stops from where we live are gone for now, so the shortest travel time has gone from 5h 30m to an 11h 30m red-eye.

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I've been following the situation in Hawaii too. It seems like it is a different situation from continental travel, since like many island nations, they shut down visitor arrivals and thus airline travel with the 14-day quarantine you mention. You can't do that at Tahoe or Mammoth. It seems like each island has different requirements now, or at least each island wants a stricter 3-day negative retesting protocol.

And the locals were really vigilant, they were reporting any quarantine breakers on Facebook and to local authorities. In some cases, people who refused to cooperate got flown back off the islands.

And from what I read, even though the local economies are decimated by the lack of tourist dollars, a lot of locals are really happy to not be overrun with tourists at their favorite beaches. There is also talk of less tourist numbers, to be made up for with higher value tourists--less budget options. I wonder if things will ever go back to what they were before, because a lot of people didn't like it before.

Yeah, it has been interesting. I'm glad they are staying safe even if it has affected our income substantially. It isn't the islander's fault the U.S. has been unable to contain the virus for so long. I'm not sure about the other islands, but for Maui person over 5 years old coming to the island needs a negative test within 72 hours or they will need to quarantine for 14 days. They tried to implement this the past couple months, but changed back to the 14 day requirement.

Yes, the quarantine orders were very strict. You could not even go pick up a rental car. You needed a private driver hired. You could not go get groceries. We know of people staying at a hotel that opened the door when a service person knocked to change something. The guest told them they were in quarantine and shut the door. The front desk called within a couple minutes to ask why the door had opened.

The locals we've been in contact with have been making the most of it. They have very much enjoyed having the island to themselves. It is (hopefully) a once in a life time opportunity for them.

Pent up demand but no money to spend on these vacations. Why would you fly to Hawaii when you don’t know if you can make next months rent?

Do you really think the people who can't make next month's rent substantially overlap with the frequent air travelers?

It's definitely not the case among my peers. If anything, the people who traveled a lot have just been saving a lot of money during covid while they WFH and are unable to spend it as frivolously.

I have friends who had great jobs (and would take frequent vacations) but have since been laid off and are now living at home.

Sure my tech friends have done great, but not everybody works in an industry that's conducive to remote work.

Were those people taking vacations in the first place? All the white-collar workers who fly to AirBnBs in better climates are still pulling in a paycheck working from home.

Yes. Their industries were impacted by Covid and are unlikely to recover anytime soon.

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