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Having been on both sides, that seems like the most likely explanation. For a given job posting we see hundreds of applicants, 90% of which have no business applying for that job and maybe another 5% are close but unqualified.

The process has become optimized for weeding out the 490 bad applicants to eventually get down to the 10 worth talking to. It's painful for both sides, but eventually it does get there.

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I think it's more so one can retroactively justify picking a particular qualified candidate from a list of 100 qualified candidates.

That opinion will make anyone with experience in hiring think that you don't have it (experience in hiring). Sturgeon's law holds true for job applicants.

on the other hand, 90% of tech hiring managers have no business being in the decision making position.

it's a lose lose situation

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