Actually, if you take a look at the graph, you will notice that paths that direct to red leaves are almost all almost entirely red whereas there is a lot of paths to blue leaves that are mostly or even almost entirely red.

Or think another way. The largest number of states that can be blue and red still wins is 4. There isn't any combination of any combinations where 5 of selected states are blue and red can still win.

To calculate actual probability don't look at just the number of read leaves to number of blue leaves. You need to take into account probability of each of the state being blue or red. I am too lazy to calculate it but at first sight red outcome seems extremely unlikely.