To you and the other comment - as much as I dislike Taleb's rhetoric, this is precisely the sort of bet he has made a lot of money on. People round rare event probability down to zero, and if you bet against them enough with sufficiently extreme odds you'll eventually (and in expectation) hit a home run.

I would be more than happy to make this bet with anyone willing to take the other side - as in literally, find a modern middle-man system and I'm game.

You may want to be aware that you have provided me a nontrivial arbitrage opportunity, as the odds on predictit are closer to 7:93 : https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6611