Imagine there was no Facebook. I suspect the events of the last few years would have gone the same. 4 years of Trump is what got Biden elected.. not facebook ads.
TV ads? That's a whole different ball game that has clear signal in the polling.
Trump got 63 million votes in 2016. He got 7 million more in 2020. In the end, what decided the election is 3 votes every 100. The result is clear-cut: one wins, the other loses. But in reality what decided the election is a really tiny difference. Small enough for ads (from all sides) to have an effect on it, and really too small to say that anything has actually changed in the country.
I go back and forth. Sometimes I think this stuff must be super valuable because so much money gets spent in it. Then I work with medium businesses who have no clue how effective their spend is.
I mean this sincerely: what actual evidence is there that CA affected the 2016 election?
1. Advertisers wouldn't spend so much money if it didn't work
2. ...?