I think you should take another look at Sweden's data. Sweden (and a lot of countries) were doing fine, likely because the weather is nice and people were spending their time meeting outdoors, where infection risk is way lower. Now that it is getting cold, their case counts are on the way back up as are their deaths. It is worth noting that most of my Swedish friends say that many people were staying home anyways, just because they did not have a government mandated lockdown doesn't mean many people did not decide to avoid the risk themselves.

There are plenty of datasets that include date of death instead of reporting date and they show the count of deaths increasing again as well, on a lag, just like you would expect.

The low fatality rate we have enjoyed recently has been partially a result of the availability of improved medical care. Unfortunately that is a stepwise function where once you have surpassed the amount of available care, the improvements we have made in care revert to some extent. We don't know how much.

I see that you only really post about COVID stuff on hackernews, and I don't know why anyone would bother, but what truly blows my mind is the amount of hubris it takes to sit at home, read a few news stories, and say "I know better than the majority of people who have spent their lives studying disease because I know some statistics and read a few articles that disagreed with the mainstream."