It depends how the conflict starts. If China launches a sneak attack with no warning then they would have a pretty good chance of taking out whichever two or three carriers happen to be in the western Pacific Ocean at the time. But if the conflict starts with a minor incident and then escalates the US Navy might have a chance to shoot down most Chinese reconasaince satellites first. Those antiship IRBMs have limited sensors and guidance so they have to be precisely targeted at launch to have a chance of hitting anything. The best way to do targeting is with a constellation of radar satellites, but those satellites are relatively easy to shoot down.