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Comment by ende | Hacker News Reader

Not necessarily - carriers are a peace-time fleet.. their value is in force projection and unparalleled logistics.

When it comes to a shooting war though, the US Navy has an entirely separate war-time sub fleet. The carrier fleets would back off to a safe distance and provide logistic support until the subs and bombers decapitated enemy weapon and radar systems, and air superiority could be established. Then the carriers could move in to provide close air support missions and targeted air strikes.

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The follow up question is - assuming supercarrier battle groups are still relevant in warfare beyond bullying third world countries that can't fight back...

The US Navy has...10? nuclear supercarriers in service (IIRC there is a Ford becoming active soon and another in construction, but a Nimitz or two scheduled for retirement).

Plus the gator navy has more non-nuclear amphibious assault ships that are arguably carriers in all but name (and also arguably at close to if not equal to other nations' dedicated carriers)

Are so many carriers needed?

That's not a good mission profile at all when a stealth bomber, range 10 000km, takes off with a hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile with a range of 2000km, and sinks your carrier before it can even be of any logistic use.

The US Military is ultimately reliant on naval domination for its logistics, and it's naval domination requires carriers and large surface vessels as submarines can't do area denial. If the US military loses that ability, it can't secure its supply chain, and it will be crippled.

The unopposed aircraft carrier caused an anomaly where the US was able to have supply chains of infinite sizes without any issues. If the current threat materializes, then the US Military Doctrine for force projection crumbles.

> That's not a good mission profile at all when a stealth bomber, range 10 000km, takes off with a hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile with a range of 2000km, and sinks your carrier before it can even be of any logistic use.

So far it's maybe remotely plausible in the second American Civil War, because no foreign enemy yet posses this capacity. No stealth bombers, and no hypersonic cruise missiles.

Otherwise yes a lot of hypothetical tech that can disable carrier fleet. Photon torpedoes, Yuri's mind control, genetically modified Krakens..

China and Russia have hypersonic missiles which can evade US targeting, and India is catching up fast. Russia and China are also developing stealth bombers.

Bottom line is that carrier groups are already sitting targets and unlikely to last long in a superpower conflict.

First the elegant Battleships and now the might Aircraft Carriers are on the way out...

Is a goon-swarm free-for-all really the future ruler of the seas?

This argument already played out between the carrier and sub fleets during the Cold War. The carrier is not the next battleship, that’s just lazy analysis.

The tactics in the Cold War were based essentially on preventing the enemy from knowing to a good level of certainty the position of the Cold War, for long enough to send submarinesm.

This is not a viable technique in 2020.

Both China and Russia have stealth bomber prototypes due to be online in the next few years.

Also, the Russian 3M22 Hypersonic Cruise missile is in testing as of today, so they definitely do have one. China is also working on it.

It seems to me that you're seriously overestimating the technological lead of the US.

You’re ignoring the part where the carrier fleets withdraw out of range of any potential threats during the A2AD phase of an emergent combat theatre until the environment is safe for them to resume closer area support.

This is likely what is going to happen. The issue is that without those aircraft carriers it will be exceedingly difficult if not impossible to gain a foothold and maintain forward positions.

10 000km is a very long distance.

And of course, air bases closer to the theater will be bombarded using missiles, and thus the US would be deprived of air support.

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