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Shouldn't the bitcoin price be higher on USDT shops like Bitfinex and Binance then, vs other exchanges? I'd expect USDT buying pressure to drive up the price, while elsewhere there would be selling pressure to get real USD out. Yet this doesn't seem to be the case.

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Yeah, the risk premium is surprisingly low: http://www.untether.space/

My guess would be that the Usdt is somewhat backed, so you can exchange some amount of it for usd and as long as no one questions any of that arbitraging it across exchanges is basically free money. Once tether gets a bank run and it becomes obvious it's not fully backed, that spread will shoot up

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