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> it's not like other ARM chip manufacturers are going to have to go through all of the same R&D expense to figure out how to make chips that are comparably fast--they just need to copy what Apple did without infringing on any particular patents

Very handwaivy but the devil is in the details of that "all they have to do". Copying success is not that straight forward or else AMD would have had a response to Conroe in 2007, Intel for Zen in 2018, and Qualcomm for A-chips around 2014.

In my opinion, Apple "derisked" high-performance ARM chips with the A9-ish era five years ago. Other companies have had a long time to spend catching up to Apple mobile chips, and they haven't.

That's a completely reasonable challenge, and I might be wrong. My very amateur speculation is that, in the mobile space, Apple got incrementally better over time. Rank-and-file Android users didn't really notice the performance gap and thus didn't demand faster chips. M1 changed expectations for the laptop market virtually overnight, and rank-and-file users will expect M1 performance, battery life, etc. I think this represents an enormous market opportunity for PC manufacturers and thus chip suppliers that didn't really exist circa A9.

My key assumption is that there's some pareto principle at play--80% of the M1's performance gains over the next best generic ARM chip are due to a handful of key innovations while the remaining 20% come from a long tail of incremental improvements. This would mean that generic manufacturers could copy those handful of key innovations (modulo IP rights, which might be another fatal flaw in my speculation) and recoup 80% of that performance gap in just a few years. If that assumption is bad and the performance is entirely an accumulation of lots of minor innovations over time, then I suspect it will take chip manufacturers quite a lot longer to catch up.

There's more to it than chip design though. There is the OS work to take advantage of the chip's new features. And designing new chip features to accommodate sw bottlenecks. Apple has very close collaboration between software and hardware engineering, while in the competitive space, those two things are not under the same roof. Makes it tougher.

True, and I don’t expect generic manufacturers to completely close the gap between them and Apple, but I do expect there will be enough to copy that we’ll still see a step change in PC performance.

Qualcomm has been unable to compete with Apple's ARM phone processors for years. It's gotten to the point that the only processor that comes close to a new Apple SOC on benchmarks is Apple's previous SOC. Why do you expect the PC market will be different than the phone market?

Because now Qualcomm just use (or modifying a bit, like cache capacity) Cortex-A CPU core design. Both Intel and AMD designs own core.

> When iPhone came out in 2007, Android was still an OS for BlackBerry like devices.

When iPhone came out in 2007, Android did not even exist. [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)

How is that any true? From the article:

> An early prototype had a close resemblance to a BlackBerry phone, with no touchscreen and a physical QWERTY keyboard, but the arrival of 2007's Apple iPhone meant that Android "had to go back to the drawing board".

Your own source contradicts you.

I'm not sure how. iPhone was available in June 2007. Android went into public beta in November 2007, and reached 1.0 and was first released in a commercial device in September 2008. [1]

I guess Android, or what morphed into Android, was probably being developed, in a pre-beta state, when iPhone was announced in January 2007. Okay. It sounded to me like someone was saying that Android was released on Blackberry-like phones at the time iPhone came out. That was only thing i was objecting to. Sorry, a small point I almost didn't even bother to make, and probably not helpful to anybody, anyway.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_version_history

If it were so easy, why are all of the other ARM manufacturers years behind?