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Isn't that partly just a prediction of vaccine production/uptake/effectiveness rates?

After all, if the world can only produce 2 billion doses of vaccine a year it'll be a few years before international travel is back to normal.

Some of the people surveyed may even have responded before vaccine clinical trial results came out...

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In the US, the rate of passport holding is pretty low.. life can return to “normal” here without a lot of international travel. Those who travel internationally may be a different subset when it comes to “back to normal”.

Edit: “According to Census and State Department data, 21.4 million passports were issued in 2016, which is the most ever. That means 42 percent of Americans hold a passport, a growth of 15 percent since 2007. In 1990, only four percent of Americans had one.”

It's also not like international travel is zero at the moment, although it's certainly way down. Although I don't know for sure, I expect to be traveling internationally next fall.

I’d like to travel, but I’ll wait until it’s defensibly sane. It’s not like I want to visit other places that are locked down, too.

I don't know the date it changed but you didn't used to need a passport to go to Mexico or Canada. (Technically you just need a passport card today but birth certificate is no longer enough.)

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