I agree with everyone's sentiment that Oracle and HP are dinosaurs lead by people in the finance department, but I also agree with yours. These companies are also canaries. We've crossed the tax and bureaucracy threshold that companies are willing to deal with.

I predict that it will continue to be a slow transition until a tax friendly state with a decent tech hub joins California, Montana, North Dakota, and Oklahoma in banning non-competes. If that ever happens, California is in deeper trouble.