What you are referring to is mostly unskilled labor. Mr. Rowe was specifically talking about work that cannot be outsourced - welders, plumbers, electricians, carpenters.
We're not short of carpenters, we're short of people who repair furniture.
We're not short of plumbers, we're short of people who repair washing machines.
Once specificity is injected into the conversation, the issues surrounding these shortages become more clear. Are you going to pay to repair a computer if the newest wiz-bang HP is only $400 at Best Buy or WalMart. Some might. After all, they may only have $200. Majority will probably just buy a new one. But there is currently a lack of labor to address the market of people who wish they could have the computer their aunt gave them 4 years ago refurbished.
It's also more clear why the shortage exists. People with the proclivity will gravitate towards the 'safer' route, being an electrician. We only notice a lot of laid off electricians because construction is in a downturn. But, and here I'm only speculating, I think most electricians or utility company linemen for instance, would not count refurbishing old pc equipment for minorities in ghettos as a viable replacement for the work they currently do. At least not financially.
Similarly for carpentry. There is a market outside construction for woodworking. Does it pay as well? Is it large enough to absorb all of the carpenters idled due to the construction downturn? Judging by the unemployment numbers for construction workers, I would bet the answer to at least one of those questions is 'no'.
The reasons for our imbalances are more fundamental. In the US, things are less expensive to buy than they are to build for instance. Presently, encouraging people to go to Vocational Schools sets the conditions for the same sort of disappointment as encouraging them to go to College does. Until the more fundamental equilibrium are established, we will always be short of people willing to do low paid work. And there will be an over supply of people to do the high paid work. Even on the vocational level.
FAR more vocational people in car repair for instance, than computer repair or woodworking. Consequently, it is tough to land a job in car repair and easy to be fired. Lots of people out there learning to do it. Meanwhile, no one wants to repair furniture or PCs because there is no money in it.
In Australia right now, skilled tradesmen are making money hand over fist, and the skilled trades are rapidly becoming more prestigious than the lower end of white-collar work (see the Sydney Morning Herald's "Australia's Hottest Tradie" competition for more details...)
But this will never happen in the US because there's an effectively infinite supply of semi-skilled workers being allowed in by an immigration policy which is highly restrictive for high-skilled workers (who leave a paper trail when they get hired) and practically unrestricted for low-skilled workers (who don't).
So we need premium carpenters/coders/electricians.
If immigrant (legal and illegal) are undercutting the industry by charging pennies for jobs that regularly cost a hundred per hour, then that is a problem with the industry, not with the unskilled immigrants.
I went to a vocational school to learn to be a wrist-watch repairman. I'm certified by both Swiss and American organizations. So why am I looking to change career paths after 8 years in the business? There's not enough people that have higher end watches that need repairing to justify doing this full time for the rest of my life. There's an Asian made movement out in the wild that I can buy 200 of at $1.50 each, which also powers 50% of all simple non-swiss watches in the world. This thing is plastic, heat pressed together, uses plastic form-injected gears, and does not have a single replaceable part on it. Got a little dirt in the gears? Replace it. Stem is broken? Replace it. In regards to high end companies, it took me 6 years to convince a Swiss company that I would be a good asset to help with their after-sales-service and obtain a spare parts account with them.
If the government is worried about Skilled Labor disappearing, then someone needs to provide incentive to companies to develop standards that allow laborers to get parts accounts with them, as well as have manufacturers of product create products that are repairable. This is obviously a multi-faceted problem.
Same with plumbing and wiring. I would bet that within a few decades we will see massive use of robots in construction.
Now, for ad-hoc repairs you may still need a skilled human being, but for new assemblies I think the robots are going to take over there sooner or later as well.
Unless of course you think these robots will have AI. In that case, why would they build buildings for us, vs ruling over us?
I for one welcome our new robot overlords.
I'm not. Afterall, somebody has to build the robots. It just means those welders will need to move on to more gainful employment.
It will be painful in the short-term perhaps, but I liken it to the situation with farming. A couple hundred years ago people spent most of their time just trying to feed themselves, but then we slowly automated a lot of that and people moved on to more productive means of employment. The current situation will only be tough for the people not willing to embrace change.
Easier said than done. Not everyone can be a programmer, and robots can easily build other robots. There will be some room left for human work, but there won't be enough to cover 300 million people. The social danger I see is an incredibly high portion of the work force out of work and out of money (with no government support structure), if people become desperate for their basic survival needs that they're used to now things can get very ugly.
And if we expand the term 'robot' to include simulated human minds, we get into a worse position with "normal human" jobs.
http://hanson.gmu.edu/IEEESpectrum-6-08.pdf
"Would robots be slaves? Laws could conceivably ban robots or only allow robots “born” with enough wealth to afford a life of leisure. But without global and draconian enforcement of such laws, the vast wealth that cheap robots offer would quickly induce a sprawling, unruly black market. Realistically, since modest enforcement could maintain only modest restrictions, huge numbers of cheap (and thus poor) robots would probably exist; only their legal status would be in question. Depending on local politics, cheap robots could be “undocumented” illegals, legal slaves of their creators or owners, “free” minds renting their bodies and services and subject to “eviction” for nonpayment, or free minds saddled with debts and subject to “repossession” for nonpayment. The following conclusions do not much depend on which of these cases is more common."
Also, what will happen when the automated welder starts having issues because some slag got into the gas head (where the inert argon is released) and the welding quality tanks? There needs to be a skilled laborer that knows how to fix it, and it will massively suck if your entire business which revolves around metal being welded together has to stop for 2 days until some specialized worker has to fly in to repair your device, all because no one you employ knows how to weld by hand.
PS: how much longer it takes might be less important than how much cheaper it is per weld. If I can pay someone 12$ an hour for 8 hours to do the same work that someone making 50$ an hour does in 4 it's normally a huge net win. On to of that, it will probably become faster fairly soon.
The company I work in in Spain, big European hi tech multinational is planning to replace 92% of all welders with laser automatic machines.
Laser machines work 24/7, no unions, much less safety cost, better precisions, faster, and way cheaper.
Laser or plasma has been there for a long time, the cost is the thing that goes down and down.
Plumbers-> Now pipes are pre fabricated. Electrician-> Very easy to do it yourself. Carpenters->IKEA
No, people do not need people to fix the TV. They could go to the shop and buy a new one by 600$(in the near future is going to be 300$), people could buy a 30$ pendrive to see it on their computer.
Here (Sweden) the last two times I called a local plumber what happened was that the plumber showed up looked at what needed to be done for 10 minutes, leaves and call in a couple of Eastern Europeans he had in 'inventory' to actually do the work. Once they where done he came back to check over their work and hand me the bill. Shipping in and out cheap labour to keep waiting times to a minimum essentially then becomes and inventory and logistics problem, just like any other, for the company acting as a middleman.