By the way, a piece of pedantry apropos a recent HN article: "...the Internet will devolve into regional internets." I.e. there is one Internet that connects to essentially everything; regional networks can practice internet working but aren't the proper noun "Internet"
> internet working
Wouldn't it be inter-networking/internetworking or internet networking?
In order for a country to cut itself off effectively enough, it has to be (a) huge enough to replicate any service its citizens might want that is found elsewhere and (b) authoritarian enough to crush/jail/imprison/ostracize them for circumventing it.
So far even Russia hasn't managed both. I don't think any country but China can pull it off, so we're looking at worst case a Real Internet and a ChinaNet. The only other countries that will succeed will be backwater countries dooming themselves to perpetual backwater status (I can name a few but won't).