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Comment by est31 | Hacker News Reader

In real electric car markets, other brands than Tesla run the show. In Norway, one of the biggest western electric car markets, Tesla is way at the bottom of sales. Only 95 Teslas were sold in November, while single models of other manufacturers had multitudes of that number in sales.

https://insideevs.com/news/452441/norway-plugin-car-sales-oc...

I think Tesla's main contribution lies in the past, by being an early pioneer of EVs and pushing them in an environment where nobody considered EVs viable. This definitely deserves an entry in the history books. But competitors have waken up.

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Tesla's monthly sales in any specific (non-US) market are completely meaningless, because total demand greatly exceeds supply, and supply is not evenly distributed. That is, there are months where individual European markets get thousands of Model 3's, and there are months where those same markets get a handful, if any. This means that both the "OMG Tesla sales grew 15005% in market X!" and "LOL Tesla only sold 3 cars in market X!" are completely meaningless non-news from which you cannot derive any information.

Just to drive the point home, new registrations of Tesla cars in Norway by month in the past 8 months: April: 44 May: 8 June: 568 July: 348 August: 33 September: 1439 October: 95 November: 326

No, Teslas did not suddenly become hugely more popular during September and then immediately lose a lot of their popularity in the month after. It's just that in September, a lot more cars were allocated to Norway, and so a lot of the people on the waiting list finally got theirs. During the other months, those cars went to other European countries.

Tesla is still ridiculously supply-limited compared to the amount of cars they could sell, if they only had the cars. Whether they succeed or not depends mostly on how fast they can scale their production.

Good point about the data being noisy, wasn't aware of that. If we take an entire year the core of my statement still holds, although more weakly. Tesla is a competitor, but not market leader. Other cars sell way better. Check the image at the bottom of this article: https://insideevs.com/news/452441/norway-plugin-car-sales-oc...

3.2k Tesla model 3's sold in 2020, but it's only at #6, with #1 to #5 each selling more than that, like e.g. ID.3 with 4.4k vehicles.

Year to year changes seem to be significant. By this time last year, Tesla had sold ~14k Model 3s.

From the article you cite:

> Surprisingly, disappointing results are seen from the two best-selling BEVs in Europe - Renault ZOE (119) and Tesla Model 3 (74).

I found this article [1] with sales figures for Europe. For H1 2020, it was 37k Renault Zoe, 32k Tesla Model 3, 18k VW e-Golf, then 4 in the 11-13k range, and 3 in the 7-8k range.

[1] https://europe.autonews.com/sales-segment/europes-no-1-selli...

If you look at the greater european statistics it's not a real electric car market any more, as most vehicles sold have ICE components (either hybrid or solely ICE). Norway is special because of their large market share of BEV cars. They make up 56% of new car sales in Norway while only 7.2% in all of the EU.

So all the EU stat is saying is that Teslas are sold well in the niche of the market that's interested in buying EVs over more established brands. The Norway stat is more representative of what happens when 56% of all newly sold EU cars are purely electric.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/03/norway-in-november-ev-m...

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/09/20200904-acea.html

That's the magic of first-mover advantage.

Tesla had like 3-5 years head start on any competitor. Just like the iPhone had a few years head start with the iPod. They got into people's mind, built a brand, and by the time the iPhone came out, and by the time the iPhone became a beast everyone else was playing catch up.

Remember how blackberry was so desperate to make an app store, and it was an absolute heap of shit?

Well Apple basically created an ecosystem where engineers were running apple hardware with a decent development environment. By the time anyone else could compete a few years passed, apple was a clear market winner, and all competitors were just trying to not get decimated. Took android a while before it was a real good apple competitor, and still playing catch up in many ways.

Tesla is in the same boat. Eventually there will be better EVs for less money for specific needs. But Tesla will always be synonymous with EVs. First thing you think about. The thing you judge everything against. Not to fanboy Tesla. That company has many many problems.

One can perhaps think of this as Teslas blind spot. People living with California wages don’t necessarily see the difference in prices mattering that much.

This is not a blind spot, it's explicitly part of their company's long-term strategy; Musk's plan from the beginning was to start with a luxury-tier offering (Roadster), and gradually work their way down the price-points as they achieved greater economies of scale.

Musk wrote about this way back in the day (2006):

https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-j...

> Almost any new technology initially has high unit cost before it can be optimized and this is no less true for electric cars. The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model.

You might criticize their execution for failing to reach the mass-market sedan price-point fast enough (though I think that they have done an impressive job of starting a car company from scratch), but I don't think the "blind spot" claim really holds water.

Good point. So they simply were not able to ramp up faster than it took for the existing manufacturers to start catching up and leveraging their scale better.

They seem to be ramping faster than anyone else.

https://electrek.co/2020/10/30/tesla-tsla-market-share-globa...

However they are not selling more EVs than everyone else in every market, which isn't a bad thing IMO. A smaller piece of a bigger pie is what they seem to be shooting for.

Yep, it's a classic "new market entrant is racing to become the incumbent before the incumbent(s) can copy their innovations" situation.

It's a good illustration of why software is such a different paradigm than traditional physical economies; VCs can pour funding into a software company and since the marginal costs are close to zero, the innovator can blitz-scale and take over the market before the incumbent has time to react. However when "scaling" means building global logistics infrastructure, including factories for batteries and factories for cars, it's a lot harder to get the drop on the incumbents.

I think the GP's comment is spot on though, if Tesla fails to win this race, they will still have been the driving force in bringing EV adoption forward by 5-10 years (perhaps more), which is an incredible achievement.

Norways GDP per capita is higher than Californias.

Disposable income seems like the more relevant number here, and in that California is higher ~(48k vs 38k USD, although numbers are a bit stale).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per_c...

It's not more relevant, because disposable income ignores things Norwegians get 'free' (because it is already deducted).

Part of that 'deduction' pays for heavy tax-breaks and subsidies for electric cars in Norway.

But then GDP is also an abhorrent metric to use for basically anything.

If you use either GDP or 'disposable income' as a proxy metric to compare anything between countries, you should seriously re-evaluate what you're doing.

I don't have to re-evaluate anything. I just wanted to tell OP that Norway is a very rich country and not in any way poorer than California.

Teslas cost more (after those tax-breaks and subsidies) in Norway than in California. You're lacing the conversation with a lot of value judgements, but those aren't particularly relevant to the question of whether the people of California or Norway are more able to buy Teslas.

Also Musk's response during this pandemic has changed the tone around Tesla I think. Plus he has moved out of the bay area. I wonder how it will impact sales in the long run given California is their main market.

Maybe, but we went on a cruise to Norway last summer and every single time we were on the streets we saw at least a few Teslas. It was a game to see who could spot the most Teslas first.

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