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My immediate reaction was (1) virus fears were overblown and (2) inflation. I was clearly wrong about the virus but the latter may come to haunt central banks. People should be investing in real assets such as commercial real estate at distressed levels and in particular privately held luxury hotel properties.

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You were not wrong. The initial estimates in jan-feb was an infection fatality rate in the 1-5% range, which is pretty bad and comparable to something like prostate cancer or lymphoma, yet by March/April, when the stock market bottomed, a bunch of studies such as study of asymptomatic prison cases and a study of California cases, showed a much, much lower IFR, of around .2-.5%, which has fallen ever since as more people are tested, which came as major phycological relief even as the death and case count costumes to rise.

The estimates back then were 0.5%, but many media outlets were conflating them with case fatality rates, which were the percentage of hospitalized people that died (and are well above 1%)

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