Yeah, I'd give 30(realistically 15) years tops for AGI. And then we'll call it the end of history.
That is if we don't kill ourselves by making stupid mistakes.
That is if we don't kill ourselves by making stupid mistakes.
I think 30 years is probably reasonable, if for “30 years” one reads “twice as long from now as commercially viable fusion generation actually was when first widely hailed as 15 years away”.