California reports 585 coronavirus deaths, new single-day record in state | Hacker News Reader

California reports 585 coronavirus deaths, new single-day record in state

ktla.com

43 pointsbelltaco33 comments

To put this in perspective, in 2017, 62797 people in California died of heart disease, which is about 172 deaths a day.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/california/califor...

So it sounds like it's by far the #1 cause of death, but not clear if it outnumbers all causes of death combined (I'd be interested in more info)

A fairly safe bet that heart disease is a comorbidity in many of the COVID deaths.

Also a safe bet that that without Covid, many of those people would be alive today.

Exactly this is what a lot of deniers fail to understand. People do die from underlying causes when infected by covid but those causes would have been manageable without covid.

On Tuesday we set a record of 432. On Friday, of 585.

To me the shocking thing isn't that we are setting new records for deaths, or set 2 new records in one week.

It is that the second record is more than 1/3 higher than the first. :-(

Apparently morgues and funeral homes are at maximum capacity and are turning away families.

https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/los-angeles-mo...

And on the 27th there were 64, and on the 25th, 77. There’s a fairly obvious dip in the 7-day trendline around Christmas:

https://covid-19.direct/state/CA

It’s likely that some of this is due to reporting delay over the holidays.

> the pandemic was pushing state hospitals to the “brink of catastrophe”

what’s the exact metric for catastrophe?

routine treatments for many people have already been delayed resulting in their deaths

daily emergencies have resulted in the same thing

Hospitals around the state have declared their “internal” disaster, as a signal to send people to other hospitals in advance

And its been like this for weeks

So at what point do people say universally consider it beyond “the brink” and actual catastrophe, in California

I wish our government health agencies would do a better job at facilitating or running trials on potential treatments, or even just monitoring trials from other countries. There are now several randomized trials showing ivermectin as beneficial both as a treatment and as a prophylactic. There is a trial that showed a very good result using ground black cumin seed and raw honey. Other possible treatments: intravenous high dose vitamin C. Interferon. Quercetin and Zinc. Hydroxychloroquine and Zinc. Green tea, to boost interferon production. Vitamins C and D. Zinc. Lactoferrin. Cistanche. Coconut oil. Naproxen.

And yet here we are without sufficient data. All of the above is likely safe too. Some of the above is thought to have broad antiviral properties. Trials on the above could have been run years ago for other viruses.

What is that, per-capita vs other states though? Curious how effective californias measures are, currently.

For one week average deaths per capital California is around around 20-25th highest.

For one week average new cases per capita, California is #1 or #2.

The timing of the third wave differs considerably among the states, with several states having had it hit them 30-50 days before it hit California. Those states are now past their peaks. California will probably end up somewhere between between 6th and 10th place for third wave peak one weak average when everyone is past their third wave peak.

For total cases per capita over the whole pandemic, right now they are around 26th. The might move up some, but probably not much, so should finish in the middle somewhere when this is over.

For total deaths per capita over the whole pandemic, right now they are around 40th. I'd expect them to move up more on that than on cases, due to resource limits on their medical system.

Based on the CDC data CA is worse than Florida per capita for the last 7 days.

In CA: 1) outdoor dining is banned 2) indoor malls are OK 3) Casinos (which operate on tribal lands) are open for indoor dining and entertainment

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k...

Florida? I wouldn’t exactly trust [1] their numbers to be delayed or simply not reported. How about comparing to another high trust state that’s also heavily impacted?

[1] https://www.salon.com/2020/12/16/desantis-faces-renewed-scru...

Would you trust California's?

Over-reporting is a thing. Notoriously so.

California's stats are pulled in the bad direction by Southern California, which has throughout the pandemic experienced much higher disease and mortality rates.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/covid-surge-los-...

It's hard to know exactly what's behind the difference between Northern and Southern CA, but anecdotally, mask and social distancing adherence is lower in Southern California.

Masks are ubiquitous here in SoCal. The main differentiator is the much higher concentration of people in SoCal. In certain areas you may have multiple households in one house/apartment, and you also have generations of people living together.

> The main differentiator is the much higher concentration of people in SoCal.

Higher population, yes, but not higher concentration (density). But both areas have very large populations, so it's not a differentiator.

> In certain areas you may have multiple households in one house/apartment, and you also have generations of people living together.

This is also true in NorCal, after all cost of housing is even higher here.

Los Angeles, Orange & San Diego counties have 40% of the CA population

Add in Riverside and San Bernardino and it’s 50% - not the densest place but so many people in the same region moving around for shopping/holidays had to drive up infections

I'd posit that the Bay Area has a higher rate of people who can work from home due to the software industry, which reduces the rate of transmission. However, it's still anyone's guess. A year from now maybe the data will be clearer.

lower than in Florida?

Personally, I blame stupid restrictions. Anecdotally, I know several families who gathered indoors with friends because their previous plans for holidays like skiing or just sitting in snow i Tahoe (by themselves only) or meeting for outdoor dining were all banned.

> Anecdotally, I know several families who gathered indoors with friends

No one is forced to gather indoors though. People chose to do it. Given the option they would have dined indoors too, gone to church, concerts, etc

> Anecdotally, I know several families who gathered indoors with friends (...)

Why? I mean, they certainly were aware that there's an epidemic ravaging the world which spreads like wildfire by gathering indoors.

Why should they try to pin the blame on a government official when this mess is self-inflicted and due to intentionally ignoring, either completely or selectively, basic safety guidelines.

Maybe their convenience matters more to them than others' lives at the moment ... until such a time that it's their lives on the line, at which point they will probably demand that the healthcare system spare no expense to save them.

> lower than in Florida?

It's not a straight comparison. Population density is higher in California, for one thing.

> Anecdotally, I know several families who gathered indoors with friends because their previous plans ... were all banned

I think you are reinforcing my point, which is that many people are choosing to violate public health protocols, so not surprising if case rates rise.

Curious whether vaccine distribution takes into account things like available hospital capacity, local infection/death rates, etc. or does each state just get doses in proportion to population, or something else?

The federal government is handing doses off to states based solely on population. California's local allocation strategy isn't public as far as I know, just the high-level priority list of who should get vaccinated.

It’s fascinating that the list basically of who gets to live is not public.

I think it's the right call. The best way to protect lives is to make sure the shots get into people's arms as fast as possible; we can't afford to have distribution held up with interminable debates about how the factors weigh out in specific cases. (The general list of factors they'll consider is public at https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/CDP...)

Meme with the comic dog in a fire saying "everything's fine".

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